Do Teams Wait Too Long to Pull the Goalie?
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09-26-2012, 09:56 PM
Join Date: Mar 2002
Originally Posted by
Have any evidence for that? Can you demonstrate that line disruption has more of a negative effect than the greater man-advantage would have a positive effect? Or is this another right-handed centre argument?
Any pulled goalie data (and hence, the projected goal scoring rates) will almost entirely consist of the games best offensive players over a single shift playing at maximum intensity. Projecting the same scoring rates when moving from your best 6 players to you next 6 best players is dubious, as is ignoring the potential problem of trying to do a line change with no GK. To convert this to a analytic question, the pulled goalie scoring rate is not a constant (though it can be successfully modelled as one for the final 1-1:30 of the game), but a function of time. These problems are even more sever if you start talking about pulling the goalie with 3+ minutes left in the game.
Furthermore, many coaches pull the goalie earlier than 1 minute left, with many essentially pulling the goalie when they have completed there final line change and get the puck in the offensive zone.
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