Do Teams Wait Too Long to Pull the Goalie?
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09-26-2012, 10:00 PM
Join Date: Aug 2006
Originally Posted by
Any pulled goalie data (and hence, the projected goal scoring rates) will almost entirely consist of the games best offensive players over a single shift playing at maximum intensity. Projecting the same scoring rates when moving from your best 6 players to you next 6 best players is dubious, as is ignoring the potential problem of trying to do a line change with no GK. To convert this to a analytic question, the pulled goalie scoring rate is not a constant (though it can be successfully modelled as one for the final 1-1:30 of the game), but a function of time.
Furthermore, many coaches pull the goalie earlier than 1 minute left, with many essentially pulling the goalie when they have completed there final line change and get the puck in the offensive zone.
If this is what they are doing, I agree with Canadiens1958 on this one. At least as long as teams typically employ 2 scoring and 2 checking lines and a variety of defensive defensemen, the offensive ability of a team's second 6 man unit will be vastly inferior to the offensive ability of the first 6 man unit
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