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09-27-2012, 10:24 AM
Feed Me A Stray Cat
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Originally Posted by Egil View Post
Any pulled goalie data (and hence, the projected goal scoring rates) will almost entirely consist of the games best offensive players over a single shift playing at maximum intensity. Projecting the same scoring rates when moving from your best 6 players to you next 6 best players is dubious, as is ignoring the potential problem of trying to do a line change with no GK. To convert this to a analytic question, the pulled goalie scoring rate is not a constant (though it can be successfully modelled as one for the final 1-1:30 of the game), but a function of time. These problems are even more sever if you start talking about pulling the goalie with 3+ minutes left in the game.

Furthermore, many coaches pull the goalie earlier than 1 minute left, with many essentially pulling the goalie when they have completed there final line change and get the puck in the offensive zone.
With likely icings and a timeout on hand, you might be able to keep most of your best players out there for a long time. Additionally, you need to factor in that the defending team won't be able to keep their best defensive players out there the entire time (or even worse, they get caught out there too long and have no energy).

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