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09-29-2012, 03:33 PM
  #177
DL44
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ok.. i ran the numbers on the 10 yr proposal... my numbers would not of worked for the owners...

So i threw the numbers onto a spreadsheet and played with the numbers and how they would look...

And this looked like the best scenario.

*It is important to know that it is my assumption that the 2 sides will agree on a 50-50 split for the next CBA...

So what seemed to look the best:

10 yr deal.
1st 5 yrs, 1.89 bil to the players in yr 1 increasing 3%/yr
- yrs 3,4 and 5 restriction: Player's share cannot exceed 55% or dip below 50%
Yrs 6-10: player % becomes linked and goes 51, 50, 49, 48, and finally 47 in yr 10.
(The next deal is assumed to be 50-50 for the duration of human existance)


Initial reaction may be: OMG! 47%! never!

Here's the spreadsheet results for totals over the 10 yr deal.

Zero revenue growth - 0% - (2nd) Worst case scenario
Total rev: $33 billion
PLayers' Share: 52.63%
Owners' share: 47.37%

3% / yr revenue growth - disappointing, but still growth
Total rev: $37.8 billion
Players' share: 52.15%
Owners' share: 47.85%
Cap in yr 10: $75.4 mil

5% revenue growth - safe conservative estimate
Total rev: $41.5 billion
PLayer's share: 51.59%
Owners' share: 48.41%
Cap in yr 10: $88.2 mil

7.1% revenue growth - what the player are referencing for assumed growth
Total rev: $45.8 billion
Players' share: 50.48%
Owners' share: 49.52%
Cap in yr 10: 103.9 mil

10% revenue growth - extremely optimistic
Total rev: $52.6 billion
PLayers' share: $49.99%
Owners share: 50.01%
Cap in yr 10: $130 mil
===========================

So assuming revenue growth likely being between 3 and 7.1%/yr you can see where the shares could end up...

Players total share would range between 50.5 - 51.5% over the deal without player actual money ever dipping less than they are presently making, or even having the cap dip (unless they lose games this yr, and once between yrs 5-6 in the 3% growth model) and with the cap rising, possibley significantly.

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