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10-04-2012, 06:22 AM
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Luongo's cap hit ranks 10th in the league amongst goalies. He's a lot better than the 10th best goalie, so I would still say he's good value for his cap hit.
Ok... that's not the point though.

The point is that when the new CBA decreases the amount of money available players, it's going to hurt players trade value somewhat proportional to their salary. Guys like Luongo, Sedins, Kesler, Booth, Bieksa, Hamhuis, Ballard, Phaneuf, Kessel, Van Riemsdyk, Connolly, Lupul, Komisarek; they all become less valuable (in the context of picks / prospects / cheap players, like Kadri) than they were under the previous CBA. This holds especially true in the short term, when there will likely be multiple teams that must shed salary.

Originally Posted by racerjoe View Post
As mentioned earlier, at least 7 teams have been interested in Luongo. If you call nearly a third of the league few, then so be it.

Ok, first the PA has said they will come down from 57% over time, and laid out if the league continues to grow at it's current rate, it would be 3 years to get it to 50/50.

This is a HUGE Difference from an immediate cut. Also it is important to note that the owners are sugesting the cap itself may not go down, but the % the players pay in excrow may go up, meaning at the end of the year the cap will have rolled back (all salaries going down equally).

So in both cases, for all intense in purposes his contract is exactly the same as it is now.

Seeing as how Cox is the only person talking about making players cap hits count even when they retire, I will take that with a giant grain of salt and wait for a more reputable source.

Fair value for Lui currently is greater than a good prospect who's stock just dropped. He may still pan out, but there is no denying his stock dropped.

In both scen
IIRC, the PA agreed to 54% (which would give them the same salary cap as last year -- $64m). They would then see that drop to 50% over a few years, thereby limiting the potential cap increase that a team would want to reduce the long term risk in Luongo's deal, the same cap increase that was the status quo for when Luongo's contract was signed.

Fair value for Luongo is marginally better than the second most intereted team is willing to pay. Maybe that's Kadri, maybe it's not.

Originally Posted by SunshineRays View Post
The NHLPA and NHL have not agreed to anything. There have been 'initial' 'proposals', but they are simply 'initial' and 'proposals'. It's the very nature of negotiations, I do it for a living. I don't work in labor negs, but initial proposals never look like the finished product - in my experience. Never. The details the public hear about are the ones a particular party wants leaked. It's a cat and mouse game, no one knows what going on except for the high-level guys involved in the negs.

Speculating about a future CBA, is like speculating about the exact weather details 2 months from now. It's simply to early to tell.
And in those initial proposals, there is common ground. I'm not speculating on what the uncommon ground is going to end up (although I'd take the NHLPA's proposal as a high end, and NHL's as a low end), I'm talking about aspects that are in both sides' proposals.

Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Does the CBA really affect how much Leafs fan would even give up for Luongo?

Hypothetically, if the salary cap were abolished, would your offers be any more enticing?
Absolutely... it'd be ludicrous to suggest otherwise. The only way that a new CBA doesn't really impact a Luongo deal, is if he's being traded for the same "type" of player / contract... like a Marian Hossa, where a new CBA is going to affect their value about the same. When you're talking about a drastic young/cheap for old/expensive player trade, the CBA will go a long way to determining which is more valuable.

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