Thread: Proposal: Tor - Col
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10-05-2012, 01:30 PM
  #62
Double Dion
Jets fan 30/06/2013
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceremony View Post
I don't want to throw out the "they play for my team so I can judge them better than you" card, but... I've seen the whole careers of these guys. Stastny put up 78 points as a rookie, O'Reilly put up 55 as the only real consistent performing centre in his third year. O'Reilly's offense and indeed his style of play is not suited to a top 6 role long term.

Stastny's decline in performance has brought much chagrin from Avs fans (aside from the ones who think he walks on water) but with consistent line-mates and no other outside factors I would expect him to comfortably out-perform O'Reilly. And given the Avs' recent drafting penchant for being strong down the middle and indeed the strength there over the team's history, I don't see either a need for the Avs to move one of our three centres (I'd expect Stastny to re-sign for something like 5 million, unless he puts up 100 point seasons the next two years) and I also don't see any benefit to come from it.

Duchene is the most talented and took a short, cheap contract to prove his worth after a bad season.
Stastny historically has the highest scoring ability and is the best playmaker on the team, and with consistent line-mates will score well
O'Reilly can play top 6 & PP minutes but, on this Avs team, plays best as a third line forechecking centre who can add in some points.

There's no way we'd be able to replace any of those without ripping a hole somewhere else and with the way the team's been built over the past three years, none of them are going anywhere.
Lots of people have seen their whole careers. Most posters on here watch a lot of hockey, so I don't think that counts as any sort of evidence whatsoever. If you've seen lots of them you should be well equipped to make a strong case, but it's not evidence in and of itself.

I agree that as a rookie Stastny looked like a future franchise player. The problem is that he has regressed from that point instead of progressing from there. Great players are great players, they don't need someone to make them great. Iginla has played with third liners with the exception of three seasons of Tanguay for his whole career and still managed to produce every year. I question Stastny's desire, work ethic and toughness, not his skill level.

Coaches try not to lose generally. They'll use line combinations that benefit the team. If Stastny wasn't on a top line it was because they thought that it was better for the team. You can make a case that they were wrong to do so, but they didn't do it for any reason other than what in their opinion would make the team better.

Players regress. When Phaneuf came up with us I thought he'd have a cupboard full of Norris trophies by the time he retired. He looked like the most exciting rookie defenseman since Pronger. He regressed instead of progressing. It happens. Other examples are Gomez, Samsonov and Yashin. What someone did 7 years ago in their rookie year has no bearing on who they have become as a player.

There is a much higher probability that Duchene and O'Reilly will have a higher growth curve going forward than Stastny. That factors in as well. It's by no means guaranteed, but a stronger possibility IMO. Some guys do develop later (See Glencross, Garrison, Giordano, Gionta just to stick with the G's) but most players progress drastically until 25 or so and then progression slows down.

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