The Lockout Thread UPD 1/6 - framework of new CBA agreed to
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10-05-2012, 01:46 PM
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Jose
Originally Posted by
Lots of people now popping up with the argument that Bettman shouldn't be blamed for what the owners want him to do/say. Which is true enough I suppose, but Bettman did negotiate/field the TV offers and got a pretty crappy deal. One of the major reasons why NHL is what it is, that TV contract sucks. Despite it's laundry list of faults, losing ESPN sucks. Having your games and playoff games on VS (...or NBC Network, whatever it's called now) sucks. NHL let it's pride get ahead of itself there, should've just given in to ESPN. Would've been more money in the long run, iirc, the contract offer was pretty fair also.
Now if the lockout passes 1/13/13, NBC can terminate the contract iirc.
This might actually work in the best interest of the NHL. BOG can use it as a means to remove Bettman (loss of contract) and NHL's new commish can negotiate a real contract. Lots of things would have to happen for this to take place, but it's certainly possible.
As I've said all along: Simply put, NFL prints money and the players took a cut. NBA is worth more than the NHL and the players took a cut. What makes NHLPA think they will be different?
Don Fehr is a great negotiator. I wouldn't want him negotiating my release if I ever got taken hostage. He'd "win" sure, but I'll be missing an arm and a leg by the time he does.
I blame both sides equally, but I don't like inaccuracies.
Not close. The highest US total on ESPN was $120mil IIRC. NBC is $200mil with much more coverage. And ESPN could drop games or cut into them and did so. In the last decade, the total national TV package, Canada and US, has gone from $120-$150mil to ~$350mil. ESPN was going to cut their fee to the NHL in their last contract to <$60mil/year after the last lockout.
As a percentage of league revs, NHL players take home more than the other big 3 sports by a mile.
Double occupancy on the road in 5 star hotels is written into the CBA. Single occupancy after 10years/600games.
The league has a revenue disparity problem because it is primarily a gate driven league and has less rev sharing than the other 3 major sports. Solve that issue and work stoppages don't have to be on the table. They need to have a pool of about $350mil to at least be comparable to the least of the other 3 major sports in sharing. Neither side has even approached that number. With the salary floor at $54mil, we know that it takes ~$35mil in non-player payroll items to run a team. That is $89mil total with a cap floor payroll. Look down the Forbes numbers (not entirely accurate) on the BOH forum to understand that there are a lot of teams that can't break even having to spend $89mil.
The cap floor as a percentage is accelerating faster than the cap and cap midpoint. It promotes a daunting challenge to the lesser revenue teams.
All teams will benefit from a healthy league of 30 or more teams. The national footprint is part of the deal for national TV. And the NHL was very late to the game in expansion. That is part of their problem with their TV deal. They were late in establishing a national identity. They are on track in terms of their increases to hit the NBA timeline in terms of that national TV deal. It isn't a matter of a guy coming in, snapping his fingers and having the deal appear out of thin air.
The league is not financially healthy as a whole. Only the NBA is even close to the issues of the NHL. Player payroll has to be reduced as a percentage such that the league nets a minimum of about $210-240mil in profits, about double what they are now, to get into the ballpark where sharing will fix the issues. Without profits or the potential to be profits team values will plummet and teams will fold (not just Phoenix) because no one will come forth as owners.
IMO, the general investment landscape is changing. Soon, it will no longer be possible to sell teams based on expected capital appreciation. They will need to show break even or some profit to attract potential owners. It isn't just sports.
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