Thread: Speculation: CBA Negotiations
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10-06-2012, 07:07 PM
Jack de la Hoya
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Originally Posted by Flyerfan808 View Post
Assuming the owners are going to propose a scaled rollback, which both sides could agree upon, and considering how much league revenues have been growing over the past 7 years. Is is possible to assume that even if the league scales it back a few percentage points per year: 55,53,51,50,50,50... that the players will still be making relatively the same amount of money.

Year 1: -7% pay cut
Year 2: -7% stabilizes
Year 3: -3%
Year 4: 1%
Year 5: 5%
Year 6: 9%

I'm not an economist but the basic premise is that league revenues stabilize the second year and continue to grow by 4% each additional year.
I think most impartial observers expect this to be something close to what a final deal looks like. I actually think that the NHLPA probably knows that as well, though they won't make a proposal that includes it, I guess because they are (with good reason) concerned about what Jacobs and company will do at any sign of weakness.

The owners--or at least some of the owners--want the players to take a much larger initial cut, and I think there's a pretty significant minority that still wants them under 50 percent within a few years. The pragmatists realized a 50-50 split is a good deal (until next time, and the time after, and the time after that, when they'll likely continue to whittle away at the player's chunk).

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