ATD10-AAA Finals: #1 Regina Pat Habs vs. #2 Spokane Canaries (the rivalry continues)
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10-11-2012, 12:58 PM
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
It’s tough to separate Darryl Sutter from Jan Starsi. Actually, present-day, it’s not. Sutter is my #1 coach heading into the AAA draft, easily. I have Starsi 4th. But as of 2009 I think these two are pretty even in accomplishments and impact. I wouldn’t bother splitting hairs on it, unless VI wants to!
Definite large advantage offensively for Regina. Janney’s best 6 percentage scores of 81, 80, 75, 75, 71, 58 easily dwarf Gradin’s 71, 66, 62, 60, 53, 51. Janney’s probably 20% more potent, which is not insignificant. In a playoff matchup, that gap is even larger, considering his extensive record of playoff production. Gradin lessens the gap in intangibles, not because I really think he has all that much in that area, but because I’m comparing him to Craig Janney.
The other four players are really difficult to compare. We have a modern NHLer, a modern Soviet, and two early players, one of who is more of a tough guy than a natural scorer.
I guess I’ll try to compare Cully Wilson to Bob MacMillan. MacMillan is a reasonably strong MLDer as of today, and Wilson has rightfully risen to the ranks of ATD grinder, so their stocks have both risen. MacMillan’s got pretty good intangibles, as I’ve shown in the last few drafts. Wilson’s intangibles are, of course, through the roof. Which is important when Craig Janney is your linemate.
Originally, the offensive case for Wilson rested on a lot of 6th-10th-place finishes in half leagues, so let’s see if his percentages hold up (as that’s a much better gauge for offensive dominance, we now know)
He actually doesn’t do too badly. His best six points percentage scores (compared to #1, of course, no outliers removed) are 79, 61, 58, 57, 53, 49. When you consider this metric understates the dominance of pre-expansion guys you can see he’s clearly a tier ahead of someone like Scott Mellanby, who we know to be a solid MLD glue guy.
Bob MacMillan’s best percentage scores are: 83, 58, 49, 48, 48, 44. He looks better from an ES standpoint, but I’d only use ES numbers if talking about him as a bottom line player.
Both players had a season that was not really representative of their true everyday ability and then a bunch of seasons in the 44-61 range. Consider that Wilson’s numbers deserve a 10-15% boost thanks to playing pre-expansion and that his toughness and grit are through the roof, and it’s safe to say he’s a better 1st line glue guy in all respects. (MacMillan is better defensively, mind you)
Smith and Khomutov are pretty impossible to compare. It’s safe to say in both cases they deserved to go up a level. Smith has scores almost identical to Cully Wilson, without all that toughness: 71, 67, 62, 61, 55, 44 so he does at least have MLD upside. Khomutov does as well. Each player is the secondary offensive threat on their line while providing not much else that I know of. Call that one even.
It appears that thanks to Janney and Wilson having noticeable edges on their counterparts, Regina’s first line is the better line. Cully Wilson and Craig Janney being a match made in ATD heaven is icing on the cake.
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