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10-11-2012, 10:28 PM
garret9's Avatar
Join Date: Mar 2012
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Originally Posted by PostmaFan1 View Post
Im not saying it will tell us one way or another what Scheifele will become in 6 or 7 games. Im just saying with the lockout going on alot of Hockey fans attention will turn even more to this tourny. Scheifele will be a vet on this team with alot expected of him, if he fails to deleiver it will give us some insight into how he handles big situations.
Handling big game situations, AKA being clutch, is a facade like truculant shot blockers being good defensive minded players:


The number of people whose performance improves or declines in the playoffs is almost exactly what we would expect from simple variance over the small playoff sample sizes. It is thus hard to argue that clutch talent is a significant factor in playoff performance, or that people who have had improved outcomes in the playoffs should be expected to continue to do so.

Moreover, even if there were some players who genuinely performed better in the playoffs than in the regular season, I am not sure this would be something we should celebrate. If a player really does improve his scoring skill in the playoffs, there are only two possible conclusions:
  • Everyone else chokes under pressure and performs worse, but the pressure doesn't bother him and he maintains his normal skill level. Since his opponents' play is declining, he scores more points. However, if this were the case, we would almost certainly not see the results above -- we would expect to see a lot more players outperforming expectations if all it took was not choking.
  • He performs at less than his full ability during the regular season, then turns it on for the playoffs. Is coasting during the regular season really something to celebrate? Aren't the players who give their all in every game more noble than the ones who wait until they think a game is worthy of their full effort?
We don't see evidence that players really do elevate their performance in the playoffs, but even if we did, I would argue that those players might be more deserving of criticism than praise.

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