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10-12-2012, 01:50 PM
  #117
BM67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianGoaltender View Post
Do you have evidence of over counting in Colorado? Roy's stats there don't look too far out of the ordinary at first glance: .920 save percentage and 26.52 SA/60 at home, .917 save percentage and 28.41 SA/60 on the road from '96-97 to '02-03.

One other thing about Roy is that he faced slightly more shots per game than his backups did, even despite his significant home/road split. There are two factors that may account for this, at least to some extent (quality of competition is usually higher for the starter and backups often come in as replacements in blowout scenarios when shot rates usually drop), but it's still quite possible that Roy was a bit of an anti-Brodeur that he may have "created" around half a shot per game.
I haven't worked the numbers for the teams, but here is a season by season breakdown for Roy. (I've compiled Roy's full career splits, but haven't added them to the chart which I'm just copying from another thread.)

YearH Min%H SV%R SV%H SOG/60R SOG/60H Saves/60R Save/60SOG DifSave DifSOG Dif%Save Dif%
87-8852.90%.904.89627.8830.1925.2027.042.311.848.29%7.30%
88-8965.60%.912.90224.6031.0222.4327.976.425.5426.10%24.70%
89-9057.42%.911.91327.4330.6024.9927.933.172.9411.56%11.76%
90-9160.00%.905.90826.9831.5924.4128.684.614.2717.09%17.49%
91-9255.93%.920.90825.6229.9723.5827.204.353.6216.98%15.35%
92-9354.28%.886.90328.9131.9025.6228.802.993.1810.34%12.41%
93-9458.65%.914.92329.1032.1226.5929.643.023.0510.38%11.47%
94-9556.45%.919.89230.2033.7027.7530.073.502.3211.59%8.36%
95-9655.09%.903.91429.5431.1126.6728.441.571.775.31%6.64%
96-9755.54%.914.93428.8631.8626.3829.743.003.3610.40%12.74%
97-9851.76%.917.91526.6030.6524.3928.054.053.6615.23%15.01%
98-9955.84%.921.91227.2227.9025.0725.440.680.372.50%1.48%
99-0053.86%.925.90225.6827.5923.7624.881.911.127.44%4.71%
00-0156.51%.913.91324.7626.0622.6023.781.301.185.25%5.22%
01-0257.86%.924.92724.4627.8922.5925.853.433.2614.02%14.43%
02-0354.57%.925.91428.1326.6026.0224.32-1.53-1.70-5.44%-6.53%

For the years I've worked the league numbers the H-R SOG/60 difference ranges from 1.73 to 3.18 or 5.93% to 11.19%.

Using the H/R split data from HockeyReference here is the league average SOGA/60 for
1988-89: Home: 28.42 Road: 31.60 Dif: 3.18 or 11.19%
1989-90: Home: 28.52 Road: 31.26 Dif: 2.74 or 9.61%.
1990-91: Home: 28.11 Road: 30.74 Dif: 2.63 or 9.36%.
2006-07: Home: 28.22 Road: 30.24 Dif: 2.02 or 7.16%.
2007-08: Home: 27.54 Road: 29.92 Dif: 2.38 or 8.64%.
2008-09: Home: 28.81 Road: 30.90 Dif: 2.09 or 7.25%.
2009-10: Home: 28.98 Road: 30.87 Dif: 1.89 or 6.52%.
2010-11: Home: 29.15 Road: 30.88 Dif: 1.73 or 5.93%.
2011-12: Home: 28.37 Road: 30.33 Dif: 1.96 or 6.91%.

One would need to study both teams shots to determine under/over counting, but allowing more shots at home is probably a good indication of over counting.

Hasek
YearH Min%H SV%R SV%H SOG/60R SOG/60H Saves/60R Save/60SOG DifSave DifSOG Dif%Save Dif%
93-9450.92%.926.93326.5628.9524.6027.022.392.429.00%9.84%
94-9548.11%.939.92229.8330.7728.0328.370.940.343.15%1.21%
95-9651.30%.933.90734.3336.3532.0432.962.020.925.88%2.87%
96-9754.27%.925.93531.4733.4129.1131.241.942.136.16%7.32%
97-9855.60%.938.92330.7730.3028.8727.96-0.47-0.91-1.53%-3.15%
98-9947.81%.932.94129.4929.5227.4827.770.030.290.10%1.06%
99-0051.05%.911.92624.9729.5322.7527.334.564.5818.26%20.13%
00-0157.36%.926.91427.0125.8725.0023.64-1.14-1.36-4.22%-5.44%
01-0251.77%.910.92125.6225.6523.3223.620.030.300.12%1.29%
03-0439.93%.931.88826.6921.9024.8519.45-4.79-5.40-17.95%-21.73%
05-0648.88%.935.91628.3127.5226.4625.21-0.79-1.25-2.79%-4.72%
06-0760.13%.923.89922.8824.4621.1121.981.580.876.91%4.12%
07-0855.80%.916.88620.5923.3918.8620.732.801.8713.60%9.92%

Here are the Devils home/road GF and GA and SOG over the last 12 seasons.

YearH GFH GAH SFH SAR GFR GAR SFR SA
1998-9912310213099471259412561079
1999-00133921365100311811113521098
2000-0114592128895615010313021068
2001-02112881131892939913141008
2002-03121851301904958112981031
2003-041078711809211067712551078
2005-061211041156112211212112441276
2006-07101931133106310510012211269
2007-0810493119010789410011721179
2008-09134971324115210411013741263
2009-101238711791026939912801187
2010-1192100117310747910711711110
2011-121111021134107410510311191125
Total152712221586313212137913051635814771
T/GP2.862.2929.7624.792.592.4530.6927.71

SV% are higher for both teams in Devils' road games with an additional 3.85 shots per game over the Devils' home average.


Last edited by BM67: 10-12-2012 at 02:13 PM.
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