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10-12-2012, 04:51 PM
dave babych returns
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Originally Posted by ponder View Post
When Campbell was traded he was a 32 year old dman signed for 5 more years. Yes, his cap hit was high, but 5 years is pretty much just right term wise. Florida got a top pairing dman on a reasonable term while giving up nothing in return except a pretty poor contract (a useless player in Olesz who was signed for 2 more years at a cap hit of $3.125 mil per year, and a real salary of $4-4.25 mil per year). It made sense to take on Campbell's cap hit, because they got a very good player for nothing (actually less than nothing), and the 5 year term was reasonable.
The Campbell trade made sense for the Panthers because the Blackhawks chose to bend over and take it in exchange for unloading an awful contract (for any team operating near the cap ceiling).

The problem with Luongo is not the cap hit, but the term. He's 33 years old and has 10 YEARS left on his deal. His salary decreases near the end of his deal, so it could effectively be equivalent to more of a 7 year deal, but there have been plenty of rumblings about the new CBA punishing contracts like these (for example, AHL/retired years still count against the cap once a player is 40+).

It's looking like anywhere from a 7 to a 10 year deal, and that is scary.
It's six years before the salary in Luongo's deal drops to backup money, then to what will probably be the league minimum the year afterwards.

As for "rumblings" about the league going out and punishing teams with these deals, don't count on Gary Bettman going after these deals when you have teams like the Red Wings, Blackhawks and Bruins all sporting one or more.

Anyway by the time any trade could even begin to materialize we'll know whether there is any merit to that kind of fearmongering but for now I don't believe it.

Furthermore, the Panthers really needed a #1 dman when they dealt for Campbell, but do they really need a #1 goalie? Theodore played very well for them last year, and he's cheap and only signed for 1 more year. Long term they have Markstrom, who is widely regarded as the best goalie prospect in the world, and who was great in both the AHL and NHL last year.
Hey, I'm not saying it's going to be the Panthers (let alone that it's going to be for Bjugstad.)

If the Panthers want to bet a whole season on Jose Theodore stringing two good years together that's their business, and if they want to wait until Markstrom is ready to play 60-65 games for a legit starter after that, fine. It could work out great, it could mean that goaltending is a big problem for them as soon as next year and into the indefinite future (ask Dan Cloutier and Rick Dipietro what repeated lower body injuries do to a goaltender's career).

Luongo, if anything, provides LESS value to the Panthers than Campbell did, and all they were willing to gave up for Campbell was Olesz.
Well like I said it may not be the Panthers who decide to meet the asking price for Luongo, I'm not going to argue about that. That being said I would argue that the distance between Luongo's calibre and the type of goaltender available every year in free agency and the distance between Campbell's calibre and the type of defensemen available every year in free agency is pretty different.

As for the Nucks being in a better negotiating position than the Hawks, I'm not totally sure I buy that. They more or less have to trade Luongo, they've decided to go with Schneider for the future, having Luongo around would be a classic lockerroom cancer situation. Even last season, before the trade demands, the relationship between Luongo and the fans was pretty toxic, it'll only get worse if he stays on the team.
I'm not going to bother with this dreck, Luongo has been a polarizing figure in Vancouver over the last couple of years but on balance he certainly enjoys a great reputation around the city and with his teammates. He's never done anything other than the best thing for his team and he's never given even the slightest indication that his conduct would ever change.

The Nucks want to trade him, but he has a NTC, and so far he only seems willing to waive it to go to Florida. When you feel compelled to move a player, but he'll only go to one specific team and everyone knows that, you're in basically the worst negotiating position possible.
More cherry picking from media speculation. Luongo has repeatedly said he'd consider a number of situations.

Even if he wasn't now the Canucks could easily waive him and end up with a better return (nothing) than the Blackhawks got for Brian Campbell.

And if he doesn't want to be the new face of the franchise in Columbus he'd probably expand his alleged list pretty quickly.

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