Thread: Rosters and Ratings: NHL 13 player growth
View Single Post
Old
10-16-2012, 09:31 AM
  #29
Kellogs
G'night Sweet Prince
 
Kellogs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Ottawa
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,060
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gusto73 View Post
I love the idea of statistic based growth but it seems flawed,

Had that sniper (82 overall 21 years old 4stars) put up 60 points in 2nd year

He gained 0 overall.....

Had a 20 year old snp also on 3rd line put up 45 points same potential

He gained 0 overall as well

Had a playmaker play in AHL all year came up with 10 NHL games had 1 point in them and 55 points in minors

4 and a half stars 21 years old

He went from 73 to 77 overall

I'm just really confused by this I think statistic based growth is awesome but judging by this it seems screwy

Can anyone make sense of this? Maybe snipers have limited growth because they seem to improve shooting almost exclusively?

I'm going to reload right after the last game of post season to see if it comes out different and hopefully it hasn't factored improvements yet I'd like to re run it 10 or so times to see trends maybe I was just unlucky this time around

Anyone make sense of this it would really suck if such a good young guy wasted a year of improvement
You're looking at things too simplistically. Overall doesn't tell the whole picture. If your player put up 60 points in the NHL while being 82 overall already, that tells me his offensive attributes (OA, SSP, SSA, WSP, WSA) are probably already high. Whatever improvements he may have gained in these already high attributes were probably too small to make a noticeable improvement in the OVR rating. I would also hazard a guess that it's the players' defensive ratings that are holding them back from the OVR improvement.

Also, I have come to suspect that statistics based growth has a much larger impact the closer the player is to reaching his prime.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Roffler View Post
its pure randomness.
It's not pure randomness. If it was, then people would be seeing things like Yakupov getting a massive OVR boost after year 1 similar to other players like Huberdeau, and vice versa. At worst, what we're seeing is that players seem to have a predetermined development curve.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Petes2424 View Post
Im pretty convinced it's 75% random. I've put players in all types of situations and little changes. I've had guys jump 5+ ovr who's stats were low and guys not even progress with #1 minutes, etc.

What I have noticed is after ELC's if you look and see what it would take to sign them for 8 years, you can get an idea if that player's going to grow or not. For instance, I had my only #1 overall pick in roughly 2025. The guy played his ELC out in the AHL. Never hit 70. I then signed him for a two year deal for around 1.5 million. If I looked at what he wanted on an 8 year deal it went up over $10 million. He became a top2 defenseman another 6 years later, which coincided with where those dollar values increased dramatically.

So I now look at a guy who's ELC is expired. Even if he's a 64 for example. I look to see what giving him an 8 yr deal would be and if it jumps considerable at any point, I know he'll mature into an NHL player. Also, look at the guy's trade value. If it increases or stays the same, he'll probably progress. Beware of signing them to those long 1 way deals though. It might take another 3-5 years for the guy to progress.
Interesting theory, I will look into it. Would tie in well with my previous comment concerning predetermined development curves.

Kellogs is offline   Reply With Quote