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10-16-2012, 05:04 PM
Mr Wentworth
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Originally Posted by mitchy22 View Post
...figured I'd throw it up here, as well.

Players will definitely come back with some kind of answer sooner rather than later. (Edit - If you don't like reading all of my words, just look at the bolded parts. Since I like you guys, I bolded even more than I did in the other area of the forum.)

Not that this season's growth won't be stagnated a bit because of the lockout, but I figured out some projections based on a 7-year deal with 5% growth/season over previous seasons. (Could be very optimistic, but I had to pick a number. I'm pretty sure my math is solid, but I'm too tired to go back and figure it out now. If there's a ton of interest, maybe I'll throw the spreadsheet up on Google for review.)

Regardless, this is how my numbers broke down:
An entire season lost (with the NHLPA getting 50% of HRR) is worth 6.14% of HRR over a 7-year deal.

Since I can't imagine that the NHL at this point will be willing to give that much up, we'll be dealing with smaller percentages of HRR and a portion of what Season 1 is worth. (Needless to say, it's not worth it for the players to lose an entire season anyways.)

Just within Season 1 of the deal, the breaking points look like this (Assuming 5% growth over the $3.3 billion/year HRR number, so $3.465 billion/year in the first year and increasing @5% through a 7-year deal):

1% of HRR difference over the 7-year deal lifetime = $282.1 million
Eclipsed at 14 games ($301.7 million @51% of HRR)

2% of HRR difference over the 7-year deal lifetime = $564.2 million
Eclipsed at 26 games ($571.3 million @52% of HRR)

3% of HRR difference over the 7-year deal lifetime = $846.4 million
Eclipsed at 38 games ($851.0 million @53% of HRR)

4% of HRR difference over the 7-year deal lifetime = $1,128.5 million
Eclipsed at 50 games ($1.140.9 million @54% of HRR)

I could keep going, but I can't imagine more than that is on the table. (Edit - It's also reasonable to think that Season 1 might be tossed by the 50 game lost point, if not sooner.). Yes, there are other factors, but those are the big numbers to think of for the players. We have no idea what the "losing" owners think of this, but you can definitely figure out what the players have to win/lose on the table. I also realize that figuring out playoff revenue and how parts of the regular season might vary in overall revenues aren't being taken into account. This also doesn't deal with how HRR is figured.

I just figured (and for all I know this exists in the thread already) that it'd be nice to see what the season is worth based on the old numbers as both sides jockey for 1% HRR in either direction.

The rumored length of this CBA is 6 years. Then there's the rumors about expansion to Toronto/Hamilton and Quebec.

So...if there is expansion in lets say, 4 years, then there should be a significant increase in HRR in the final 2-3 years of this CBA.

(Plus, all the "instant cash" in expansion fees paid to those who already own a team.)

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