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10-16-2012, 06:04 PM
  #498
mitchy22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazy Ivan View Post
The rumored length of this CBA is 6 years. Then there's the rumors about expansion to Toronto/Hamilton and Quebec.

So...if there is expansion in lets say, 4 years, then there should be a significant increase in HRR in the final 2-3 years of this CBA.

(Plus, all the "instant cash" in expansion fees paid to those who already own a team.)
Unfortunately, there's no way of knowing how any of the above would be dealt with until we see the full proposal (which we may never see anyways.)

How much of a bump do you think expansion would see? Are we sure that the owners included expansion fees as HRR in their proposal (and if so, was it in its entirety?) How expansion is dealt with would have to be very detailed, and we don't have much to work on.

For fun (again, and I'm bordering on delirious):

I'll figure 5% growth (year-to-year) over a 6 year deal, but I'll bump all revenues by 2/30 of Year 3's revenue as I have no idea what to guess each new team would bring. (This adds two average-year-3 revenue generating teams.) Expansion fees being shared would throw everything off. What if one team moves instead? (Relocation vs. expansion fee. The NHL has been floating the Coyotes, wouldn't they want some kind of recompense? I won't be shocked if the NHLPA doesn't get a single penny from expansion fees. I'm leaving that out.)

So here we go: 6 year deal @5% growth, with a 6.66% additive (2/30) bump in growth after Year 3 (on top of the 5% growth throughout).

Just within Season 1 of the deal, the breaking points look like this (Assuming 5% growth over the $3.3 billion/year HRR number, so $3.465 billion/year in the first year and increasing @5% through a 6-year deal with aforementioned bump to Year 4):

1% of HRR difference over the 6-year deal lifetime = $243.7 million
Eclipsed at 12 games ($258.6 million @51% of HRR)

2% of HRR difference over the 6-year deal lifetime = $487.4 million
Eclipsed at 23 games ($505.4 million @52% of HRR)

3% of HRR difference over the 6-year deal lifetime = $731.1 million
Eclipsed at 33 games ($739.1 million @53% of HRR)

4% of HRR difference over the 6-year deal lifetime = $974.9 million
Eclipsed at 43 games ($981.2 million @54% of HRR)


Whatever it is, that's close enough (without expansion fees.) It's also all the math I feel like doing tonight since I'm on 3 hours of sleep and have been up since 4:30 AM.

Take it or leave it. (I realize I expanded FOR Year 4, instead of AFTER Year 4. It makes a difference, but even with all of this ****ing math, we're still talking about the NHLPA screwing themselves hard and quickly as they lose games. That's pretty much the point behind me bothering to begin with.)

,
Mitch


Last edited by mitchy22: 10-16-2012 at 06:10 PM.
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