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10-18-2012, 10:49 AM
  #53
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
Here's the vs. #2 numbers with Gretzky/Lemieux factored out and Francis' 1995-1998 years bolded.

Gilmour: 100, 99, 89, 83, 81, 78, 77, 72, 71, 70, 63, 58, 52, 47, 46, 45, 45, 43, 40, 29
Francis: 103, 96, 91, 89, 86, 84, 83, 80, 78, 76, 74, 70, 70, 70, 68, 64, 63, 62, 55, 50, 49, 49, 46


Here's what it looks like if you adjust the 4 Pittsburgh years down to an average of 84, which is worse than his two best non-Pittsburgh seasons and only one better than his 3rd best.

Gilmour: 100, 99, 89, 83, 81, 78, 77, 72, 71, 70, 63, 58, 52, 47, 46, 45, 45, 43, 40, 29
Francis: 89, 86, 84, 84, 84, 84, 83, 80, 78, 76, 74, 70, 70, 70, 68, 64, 63, 62, 55, 50, 49, 49, 46

With this adjustment...
Best 5 years
Gilmour: 452
Francis: 427
Gilmour +25

Next Best 5 years

Gilmour: 368
Francis: 401
Francis +33

Next Best 5 years
Gilmour: 266
Francis: 352
Francis +86

Next Best 5 years
Gilmour: 202
Francis: 294
Francis +92
This is a more fair comparison. That is what Iím looking for when it comes to viewing Francisí 95-98 seasons realistically. Itís ok to give ďsomeĒ credit because he actually did it, so calling them his 3rd-6th best seasons is appropriate.

As far as adding up their best scores, I am all for that too. But what I was doing in the last ATD (which I won, heh) to make sure I didnít give a playerís 8th-best season as much weight as their best, was paste their top percentage scores into excel boxes where I had a weighting formula set up. If I use it for Gilmour and Francisí best seasons (and factor out all beneficiaries of Lemieux/Gretzky, which benefits both of them), we get this:

Gilmour: 100, 99, 89, 83, 81, 78, 77, 72, 71, 70
Francis: 89, 86, 84, 84, 84, 84, 83, 80, 78, 76

Weighted using a 20-18-17-16-15-14-13-12-11-10 system:

Gilmour: 84.1
Francis: 83.5

And I think most people would agree that my formula is very generous to longevity players, considering their 10th best season is half as important as their best.

In the end, I think comparing them offensively at their best is splitting hairs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennis Bonvie View Post
Because someone implied Francis benefited from Jagr, offensively, when they played together.

The comparison was merely to point out that it wasn't that big of a factor for the first few years in Pittsburgh.
Youíre right, it wasnít, because Jagr was young and Francis was better at that point. But those arenít the years anyone is all that concerned about when they point out that Francis benefitted from Jagr.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MadArcand View Post
The peak worship is getting atrocious here. Yeah, Gilmour has the two clearly best seasons here. But looking at careers, his peak is an aberration, much more so than Francis' years with Jagr.

Gilmour has two seasons above 90 adjusted points (his 92-94 spike), Francis has four (the Jagr seasons). If we take those years out for both of them, Francis comes out far ahead. It doesn't make sense to me to utterly venerate a two-year perfect storm of Gilmour's on one hand, and to completely discount Francis' Pittsburgh years on the other one - and that's basically what's being done here.
When Gilmourís ďperfect stormĒ was of his own doing, and Francisí was mainly Jagr-driven, yes, it does make sense.

Quote:
Gilmour also gets some mileage out of his playoffs, but...

In 1993, Gilmour leads the playoffs in assists, is 5th in goals and finishes second in points. That's truly great playoffs, and it gets recognized as such and Gilmour is basically worshiped for it. Yet when Francis led the playoffs in assists, finished 3rd in points (by a point to leading Lemieux's linemate Stevens) and 5th in goals, it gets swept under the rug. And he did that as second line center.
Iím going to take a wild guess and say thatís because 1.67 is a lot higher than 1.29.

One has been done just 33 times by a player with 10+ GP in a playoff, and just 15 times by a player with 15+ GP, by ten unique players.

The other has been done 177 times by a player with 10+ GP, and 88 times by a player with 15+ GP, by 58 unique players.

Quote:
You say Gilmour had a great playoff in 94 too, and that he didn't even make the finals in 93 & 94? Well, Francis finished 3rd in 95, despite the fact that Penguins lost in second round already...
Yes, good for Francis; he scored 1.42 PPG for 12 games. Thatís not as good as scoring 1.56 PPG for 18 games (which Gilmour did in 1994)

Quote:
Originally Posted by tommygunn View Post
It'd be interesting to see the poll results if biased votes were taken out. I have a feeling Leaf fans are skewing the results..
What makes you think Leafs fans are casting a disproportionately high number of votes? And of course 1987 is not affected by that, regardless.

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