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10-18-2012, 05:48 PM
Eternal Sunshine
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Originally Posted by kihei View Post
I'm betting Lawrence is an early lock for a nomination even though I haven't yet seen Silver Linings Playbook.

One key question how many films will be nominated for best picture, 5, 6, or more?

I doubt Looper makes the cut. Just not Academy Award-type material especially as science fiction is not generally a favoured genre.

I think The Master might make the cut, but has zip chance of winning unless it is a horrible year from here on out.

I believe Argo will make the cut. It is one of three movies that could make the older Academy Award voters feel good about their country: Argo, Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty. Voters in that age group might be smitten by a bit of patriotic zeal. I believe Argo has a chance of winning but only if it is a horrible year from here on out. In other words in terms of Hollywood film, I think it has been a very weak year so far.

My money at the moment is on either Silver Linings Playbook or Les Miserables, both sight unseen. SLP won the People's Choice Award at TIFF, often a good indicator of Oscar glory (American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, The King's Speech). Les Mis is a big serious period-piece musical with a respected pedigree adapted from a classic novel with a great cast: if the film is executed well, it offers a lot that Academy voters like. If it's a big hit: turn out the lights.

One real fun twist only just cropped up: Until his recent comments that the Oscars are "total, utter bulls..., and I donít want to be a part of it," River Phoenix was the prohibitive favourite in the best actor category for his brilliant work in The Master. I'd bet he'll still get a nomination but his eventual win is no longer looking like quite the sure thing it was a week ago. His comments may well open the door for other fine performances to be considered. Hello, Jean Louis Trintignant (Amour)--my horse in the race even before Phoenix's comments.

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