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10-19-2012, 07:32 PM
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Ottawa, ON
Originally Posted by
Rowdy Roddy Peeper
I hear ya. I guess "very unlikely to be moved unless the return fills a specific, high-value need" is more appropriate, but a little long-winded.
This team needs big, mobile, quality two-way defensemen like Despres, and being the most NHL-ready of our high-end prospects, I'd be hesitant to give him up for anything less than a Ryan-type (which would itself be a longshot anyway). Despres is probably more valuable to us than to just about any other team in the league.
I wouldn't be totally against dealing some of our defensive prospect depth, but given how crappy our current corps fared last playoffs, I'd rather move one or two of the vets to make room (read: Martin/Orpik).
I tried bringing this up in th top 20 votin but people typically don't like my pessimistic view of prospects since it's more fun to think they're all awesome. But in reality, of our top defensive prospects (Despres, Morrow, Harrington, Dumoulin, Pouliot and Maatta...and you could include Strait and Bortuzzo I guess) how many of them will develop into regular NHLers? Based on what I've learned by following prospects, probably 3 of them an my money is on Morrow, Despres and Maatta. That's just my opinion though, it's obviously still very much in the air.
But I love when people put together or future pairings like this...
...and get all psyched at how rock solid our defense will be in the future assuming all these guys are going to pan out. It's never really happened before and for as good and deep as this group is I don't think it's going to happen now.
I'm not going to get into specifics but I had the opportunity to take with an NHL scout this past summer and he said something crazy to me. He told me that teams will typically draft players that they know will never play an NHL game because you gotta draft someone in the later rounds. It blew my mind but it absolutely makes sense. How often do draft picks after the 2nd round become NHLers? It's pretty slim...something like 12% if I'm remembering the numbers right. So teams will draft their BPA and that's a player the team doesn't believe will ever be an NHLer. It just goes to show the realistic view these guys have on prospects.
So I started thinking, why the crap are the Pens loading up on defense? I always figured it was just BPA run amuck but Shero comes from the David Poile school of defensemen hoarding and GMs typically stick with that they know or have been taught. So while I don't think Shero's blatantly picking defensemen over forwards an ignoring his scouts advice, I think under his regime scouts are being groomed to value defensemen more than forwards. Perhaps it's the success rate he had in Nashville developing defensemen or his success rate in dealing defensemen with the Pens but he's artificially raised the value that defensemen have in the eyes of the organization. I'm not going to debate the validity of the strategy since it's been working so far and with having two generational talents on offense he has some room to be more creative when it comes to asset management.
My long winded point is, once GMs hit a home run at the draft, they spend the rest of their careers trying to recreate it using the same formula. Like once I got on a hot streak at the casino playing craps and I thought I had it all figured out because I won a bunch of money 5 days in a row. I promptly lost money the following 5 days using the same stupid system and that's because it's literally a crap shoot...just like the draft.
Anyways...I'm running out of steam so I'm just going to make an outlandish claim to end things off so people who reply to this post have something small they can put in bold and trash me for...Ray Shero's a bum! Ha...
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