2012 Lockout Discussion Thread
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10-20-2012, 01:09 PM
Join Date: Jul 2012
I just ran my own numbers quickly, 'back of the envelope', as Fehr would say. I could post a detailed accounting later, but the plethora of numbers seems to be clouding the issues for many. Here are my abbreviated premises and conclusions:
1)The deal must be 50/50 and existing contracts must be honoured. Those 2 are now givens. The only issues are, over what period of time and who is paying?
2)To achieve the above (ie, 50/50 and making existing contracts 'whole') would require ~ 440 million dollars of deferred salary over the life of the new CBA. That is the amount of money currently in dispute--peanuts, in the face of a business that will generate well over 20 billion in the next 5-6 years.
3)If each party commits to splitting this amount, that's 220 mill each, over, say, 6 years.
4)For the NHL, that's just over a 1 million per team per year over the life of a 6-year deal, much of which could easily come from the rich teams (rev sharing), with no discernible impact at all.
5)For the players, it would mean a slowing in salary inflation of ~2-3% per year for a number of years, but
no money taken out of anyone's pocket.
, which is a huge deal for anyone under contract.
Summary: There is a deal to be made here, requiring very little movement by both parties.
It would be completely irrational and destructive to miss this opportunity
. Therefore, I would conclude that a deal will be consummated within a week. If not, I believe the NHL will conclude that they do not have a partner with whom they can work. The real damage will begin shortly thereafter for the players and Fehr's fate will be sealed.
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