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10-22-2012, 12:03 AM
  #6
Hollywood3
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OHT35 #2 - games to October 21, 2012

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 #2

Teams are stating to have played enough games to give more reason to the rankings, so this week there has been much shuffling. I have added the B+ and C+ categories for teams that might well jump a level next time around, or the one after that.

Here are the links:
http://english.cis-sic.ca/sports/mice/2012-13/schedule
http://english.cis-sic.ca/sports/mic...standings-conf
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...67&postcount=1 - exhibition scores

Here are the latest scores:
Thursday, October 18
Brock 2 York 4
Carleton 2 Toronto 1 (so)
Laurier 1 UOIT 3

Friday, October 19
Acadia 7 St. Thomas 1
Dalhousie 4 Moncton 6
New Brunswick 4 Saint Mary’s 0
UPEI 2 St. Francis Xavier 3 (ot)
RMC 4 Nipissing 5
Windsor 4 Brock 1
Queen’s 5 Ryerson 3
Ottawa 5 Concordia 3
Lakehead 4 Waterloo 5 (ot)
McGill 1 Harvard 5 [non-conference]
Guelph 3 Princeton 2 [non-conference]
Alberta 1 Saskatchewan 2
Calgary 0 Regina 2
Manitoba 4 Mount Royal 1
Lethbridge 1 UBC 5

Saturday, October 20
Acadia 3 Moncton 2 (so)
Dalhousie 5 St. Thomas 2
New Brunswick 4 St. Francis Xavier 2
UPEI 0 Saint Mary’s 4
Waterloo 4 York 3
Windsor 5 Western Ontario 4
RMC 1 Ryerson 2
Queen’s 1 Toronto 8
Lakehead 4 Laurier 0
McGill 1 Dartmouth 2 [non-conference]
Guelph 6 Princeton 5 [non-conference]
Brock 2 Cornell 2 [non-conference]
Alberta 3 Saskatchewan 4
Manitoba 3 Mount Royal 2
Calgary 4 Regina 1
Lethbridge 2 UBC 3

Sunday, October 21
Carleton 5 Ottawa 2

````````````````------------------------------------------------------------------
`````````````` |`` A``|`` B``|`` C``| Conf. |Conf-X|Oth-CX|``CIS``|OtherX| TOTAL``|
`---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|`` A``````````|``````|``````|``````|`````` |``````|``````|`````` |``````|````````|
| 1 SASK.``````| 3 1 0| 2 0 0| 0 0 0| 5``1 0| 2 1 1| 0 0 0| 7``2 1|0 0 0 | 7``2 1 |
| 2 UQTR`````` | 0 0 0| 2 1 0| 2 0 0| 4``1 0| 0 0 0| 3 2 0| 7``3 0|0 0 0 | 7``3 0 |
| 3 UNB````````| 1 1 0| 1 0 0| 1 0 0| 3``1 0| 0 1 0| 4 0 0| 7``2 0|0 1 1*| 7``3 1*|
| 4 ST. F-X````| 0 1 0| 3 0 0| 0 0 0| 3``1 0| 4 1 0| 0 0 0| 7``2 0|1 1 0 | 8``3 0 |
| 5 ALBERTA````| 2 2 0| 1 1 0| 0 0 0| 3``3 0| 4 0 0| 0 0 0| 7``3 0|4 0 0 |11``3 0 |
| 6 MONCTON````| 1 0 0| 0 1 1| 1 0 0| 2``1 1| 2 2 0| 0 0 0| 4``3 1|0 0 0 | 4``3 1 |
| 7 MANITOBA`` | 1 3 0| 2 0 0| 0 0 0| 3``3 0| 3 1 0| 0 0 0| 6``4 0|0 1 1*| 6``5 1*|
|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|`` B+```````` |``````|``````|``````|`````` |``````|``````|`````` |``````|````````|
| 8 OTTAWA```` | 1 0 0| 2 1 0| 0 0 0| 3``1 0| 2 1 0| 0 0 0| 5``2 0|1 1 0 | 6``3 0 |
| 9 UPEI`````` | 1 0 1| 0 1 0| 1 0 0| 2``1 1| 2 1 0| 0 2 0| 4``4 1|0 0 0 | 4``4 1 |
|10 ACADIA```` | 1 1 0| 0 0 0| 2 0 0| 3``1 0| 0 2 0| 2 0 1| 5``3 1|1 1 0 | 6``4 1 |
|11 UBC````````| 0 0 0| 1 1 0| 3 0 1| 4``1 1| 0 0 0| 0 0 0| 4``1 1|3 1 1*| 7``2 2*|
|12 CALGARY````| 0 0 0| 1 1 0| 3 1 0| 4``2 0| 3 3 0| 0 0 0| 7``5 0|0 0 0 | 7``5 0 |
|13 ST. MARY'S | 0 2 0| 1 0 0| 1 0 0| 2``2 0| 2 0 0| 2 1 0| 6``3 0|0 0 0 | 6``3 0 |
|`` B``````````|``````|``````|``````|`````` |``````|``````|`````` |``````|````````|
|14 WINDSOR````| 0 0 0| 2 0 0| 1 1 0| 3``1 0| 3 0 0| 0 0 0| 6``1 0|0 2 0 | 6``3 0 |
|15 WATERLOO`` | 0 1 0| 2 0 0| 1 0 0| 3``1 0| 0 2 0| 0 0 0| 3``3 0|1 2 1 | 4``5 1 |
|16 LAKEHEAD`` | 0 0 0| 3 1 1| 1 0 0| 4``1 1| 2 2 0| 0 0 0| 6``3 1|0 0 0 | 6``3 1 |
|17 BROCK``````| 0 0 0| 2 2 0| 0 0 0| 2``2 0| 2 0 1| 0 0 0| 4``2 1|0 2 1*| 4``4 2*|
|18 CARLETON`` | 0 0 0| 1 1 1| 1 0 0| 2``1 1| 0 0 0| 1 2 0| 3``3 1|1 0 1 | 4``3 2 |
|19 CONCORDIA``| 0 1 0| 2 1 0| 0 0 0| 2``2 0| 0 2 0| 0 1 0| 2``5 0|0 1 0 | 2``6 0 |
|20 YORK`````` | 0 0 0| 2 2 0| 0 0 0| 2``2 0| 4 0 0| 0 0 0| 6``2 0|0 0 1*| 6``2 1*|
|21 W.ONTARIO``| 0 0 0| 1 2 0| 1 0 0| 2``2 0| 2 1 0| 0 0 0| 4``3 0|1 1 0 | 5``4 0 |
|22 MCGILL```` | 0 1 0| 1 2 0| 0 0 0| 1``3 0| 3 0 0| 0 1 0| 4``4 0|0 2 0 | 4``6 0 |
|23 MOUNT ROYAL| 1 5 0| 0 0 0| 0 0 0| 1``5 0| 1 2 1| 0 0 0| 2``7 1|0 0 0 | 2``7 1 |
|24 GUELPH```` | 0 0 0| 1 3 1| 1 0 0| 2``3 1| 1 2 0| 0 0 0| 3``5 1|2 0 0 | 5``5 1 |
|25 QUEEN'S````| 0 0 0| 0 0 0| 2 1 0| 2``1 0| 1 0 0| 1 1 0| 4``2 0|0 1 0 | 4``3 0 |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|`` C+```````` |``````|``````|``````|`````` |``````|``````|`````` |``````|````````|
|26 TORONTO````| 0 0 0| 1 0 1| 2 0 0| 3``0 1| 1 2 0| 0 0 0| 4``2 1|0 2 0 | 4``4 1 |
|27 REGINA```` | 0 0 0| 2 2 0| 2 0 0| 4``2 0| 0 4 0| 0 0 0| 4``6 0|1 2 0 | 5``8 0 |
|28 NIPISSING``| 0 2 0| 0 0 0| 2 1 0| 2``3 0| 3 1 0| 0 0 0| 5``4 0|0 0 0 | 5``4 0 |
|`` C``````````|``````|``````|``````|`````` |``````|``````|`````` |``````|````````|
|29 UOIT`````` | 0 0 0| 1 2 0| 1 0 0| 2``2 0| 0 5 0| 0 0 0| 2``7 0|0 1 0 | 2``8 0 |
|30 DALHOUSIE``| 0 1 0| 0 1 1| 1 0 0| 1``2 1| 0 2 0| 0 0 0| 1``4 1|0 0 0 | 1``4 1 |
|31 RYERSON````| 0 0 0| 0 2 0| 1 0 0| 1``2 0| 1 4 0| 0 0 0| 2``6 0|0 2 0 | 2``8 0 |
|32 LAURIER````| 0 0 0| 0 2 1| 0 1 0| 0``3 1| 1 2 1| 0 0 0| 1``5 2|0 2 0 | 1``7 2 |
|33 LETHBRIDGE | 0 0 0| 0 3 1| 0 2 0| 0``5 1| 0 2 0| 0 0 0| 0``7 1|2 3 0 | 2 10 1 |
|34 ST. THOMAS | 0 1 0| 0 2 0| 0 1 0| 0``4 0| 0 1 0| 0 0 0| 0``5 0|1 1 0 | 1``6 0 |
|35 RMC````````| 0 0 0| 0 0 0| 0 4 0| 0``4 0| 0 3 0| 0 0 0| 0``7 0|0 0 0 | 0``7 0 |
`---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*indicates tie game included


When I looked at all of the teams, I found it easy to find reasons why each one could not be ranked #1. After all, every team already has 3 losses or more.

So here's an explanation:

Sask - They were lucky to get a split against Manitoba, and luckier still to get a sweep of the Evil Monkeys. If this were a prediction model, I would have them 3rd in the CW and a threat to fall to #5. But they are 75% against A level teams and 100% against B level teams.

UQTR - Their raw record is not as good as Sask's, nor UNB's for that matter. But they went .600 on the road through the AUS in pre-season. But a 6-2 loss to Ottawa? Now, Ottawa may be vastly improved but that margin of loss is concerning.

UNB - Every time I look at the raw data, they are just behind Sask and UQTR.

St. FX - Their record is better than UNB's (ever so slightly) but because they lost the head-to-head, they are #4.

Alberta - The Monkeys have played 14 games, which leads the nation. I am wondering if their fast start had more to do with them being better prepared than their opponents earlier on. They have outshot their opponents (by lots) in their 3 consecutive losses. This puts them ahead of the rest, for now.

Moncton - I thought I might be over-rating them. They have two wins over UNB (one in pre-season). So their luke-warm record warrants an A-level ranking. That said, it is not hard to envision them being #5 or #6 in the AUS.

Manitoba - Some said "Geez, they're 1-3" after OHT35 #1. However, that's 1-3 against A-level teams. They were also unlucky to have split with Sask. It could be said that they should have won both, in which case the Big Three in the CW would all be tied. Their weekend sweep of MRU solidifies them in A-level but now behind Sask and Alberta. They also gave UND (one of the best NCAA teams) a good run and then tied Bemidji (a solid NCAA team in their own right).

I cannot go over all of the B- and C-level teams, but there are a few that deserve commentary.

Ottawa - Could be an A-level team. If they can repeat their results to date, they will be there.

UPEI and Acadia - The AUS is very competitive. However, the conference has less of a "halo effect" on their rankings than in past years. The OUA teams did better than usual against them in pre-season. And this follows last year's so-so results at nationals. I have UPEI ahead of Acadia based on strength-of-schedule. It is not hard to envision one or both vaulting into A-level.

UBC and Calgary - I dropped the Bedrock Boys from A-level because A-level teams just don't lose to Regina. (Unless, I suppose, their goaltender stops 60 shots or something crazy.) UBC gets the edge because their loss was in a shoot-out.

Western Ontario and McGill - What the heck happened here? Dropping these teams from A-level was hard, because I expect them to return and when they do it will require significant revamping of all OUA rankings. But they are both sub-.500 against B-level opposition. Windsor, Waterloo, Lakehead, Brock, Carleton, Concordia, and York are all B-level OUA sides who could also break out all claim A-level status. And they all have better data than the Urban Cowboys and McGilligutties at present.

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