Thread: Confirmed with Link: Andrei Markov signs for Vityaz Chekhov (KHL)
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10-22-2012, 07:34 AM
  #168
Talks to Goalposts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingKostitsyn View Post
The powerplay is still very important and was a major weakness of the Habs last year.

Habs stats
PP% : 14.3% (28th place)
PP opportunities : 301 (3rd best in NHL (so much wasted opportunities!))
Total PP Goals : 43 (23th place)
Shorthanded goals against : 8 (24th place)

Number of PP goals if we had an 17% (average) rate on the PP : 51
Number of SHGA if we were average in that regard : 5

That makes our goal differential better by 11 up from -14 to -3, which would have been better than half the league. With a good powerplay (say, 18 or 19%) we could easily have had a positive differential. This doesn't even count the possible shifts in momentum scoring a few PP goals would have caused that would result in additional GF and a few less GA. Needless to say we could have won many close games because of this, and there were a lot of close games if you remember.

Its true there were less PP opportunities than in previous years but having a good PP still gives a team a much better chance at winning. If Markov helps us scoring a few more goals it will make a big difference.
Its still an important part of the game and not having Markov to anchor a second pair and lead a strong PP was a big reason they didn`t make the playoffs (along side stupid management decisions and sheer bad luck).

My point is that the leverage gotten by having an ace powerplay player has declined precipitously. Penalties are taken at about half the rate they used to, which means the leverage a team gets from a strong powerplay compared to strong even strength play has likewise been cut in half.

You can see it in the standings last year, special teams strength had very little relation to position in the standings while 5 on 5 goal ratio was a dominant factor.

The other side of this is that you couldn`t expect a dominant PP defenseman to flirt with 60 points any more. Racking up 40 PP points in a season is basically impossible now and even the best in the league would struggle to get 30. So a full season Markov who should be good for about 20 ES points is at best going to be in the high 40s, maybe 50 points in 82 games.

Habs real (no SO or EN) goal differential was actually -2, they had bad luck on shootouts and had a ton of empty net goals against (which are very low impact goals). Basically they had a Eastern playoff team goal differential about par with the likes of Ottawa. As many problems as they had last season they weren`t losing on the aggregate balance of play.


Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 10-22-2012 at 07:40 AM.
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