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10-22-2012, 02:24 PM
  #939
Drydenwasthebest
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I'll rephrase what I wrote with a series of questions (to be followed by an answer in a few posts), in order to simplify the mathematical argument I put down before.

1) Do you agree that 4.5 milion per for six years is approximately fair value for Pacioretty going forward? (Yes/No)YES
2) Do you agree that given their roles, Hall and Pacioretty are natural comparables in terms of production/salary? (Yes/No)YES
3) If an AHL offensive player (e.g. Corey Locke, Aaron Palushaj, etc) were given that privileged offensive role for $500,000, how many points do you think he would produce over 82 games? Let's ignore goals-to-assists ratio for the sake of simplification.Depends upon the player. Too hard to honestly say. Far too many AHL guys looked like gold and didn't do well at the NHL level, while others looked like brass and overachieved.
4) What's your projection for what you think Pacioretty will average per 82 games over that time frame?I actually believe Pacioretty CAN get better and hit 70-75 points. Overall, I see him being a 65-75 point per 82 game season player through the peak years of his career.
5) What's your projection for what you think Hall will average per 82 games over that time frame? If healthy, I can see him doing 70-85 points per season, to be fair.

Answering yes to the first two questions, and giving a number to questions 3,4,5 is enough to derive a salary for Hall, ignoring injuries. You should not ignore them.
I would also answer the following 2 questions:

#6) will Hall ever play 80 games in a season? I don't think so. He is going to have to change his body or the way he plays if he wants to avoid recurring injuries. He can be great, but he seems to be the kind of guy who will get hurt because he will push his body past its limits to try and succeed at a play that leaves him vulnerable.
#7) do you think that, whatever you project him to be, he'll become than within two or three years? I don't see him hitting 70+ points in the next couple of seasons. Depending upon the kinds of injuries he sustains during that time, he may or may not achieve those point totals in later seasons of his career.


I honestly do not think Hall should have gotten the kind of money the Oilers tossed at him at this point in his career. The Oilers over spent on a player with tons of potential, without having shown anything other than potential. I know a lot of people use statistics to try and prove that someone who scored 40 points in 50 games is going to be an 80 point player (I am using loose number to make a point, please focus on the point, not the incorrect math), but that is not realistic in all cases. Look at AK. He had stretches of a season where everyone thought he would become a 30-40 goal scorer. He has never done it, though. We can all assume Hall will be a 70-85 point man, but he sure as heck shouldn't have been paid like one before ever even breaking 60 points! The Oilers should have tried to get him in at Pacioretty levels for a shorter term contract to see if Hall's durability can sustain a full season and to see if he actually breaks the 60 point mark with his current team.

Sorry for jumping into your conversation, but it is a fun one I just had to speak towards. Feel free to ignore me.

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