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10-22-2012, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Drydenwasthebest View Post
I would also answer the following 2 questions:

#6) will Hall ever play 80 games in a season? I don't think so. He is going to have to change his body or the way he plays if he wants to avoid recurring injuries. He can be great, but he seems to be the kind of guy who will get hurt because he will push his body past its limits to try and succeed at a play that leaves him vulnerable.
#7) do you think that, whatever you project him to be, he'll become than within two or three years? I don't see him hitting 70+ points in the next couple of seasons. Depending upon the kinds of injuries he sustains during that time, he may or may not achieve those point totals in later seasons of his career.

I honestly do not think Hall should have gotten the kind of money the Oilers tossed at him at this point in his career. The Oilers over spent on a player with tons of potential, without having shown anything other than potential. I know a lot of people use statistics to try and prove that someone who scored 40 points in 50 games is going to be an 80 point player (I am using loose number to make a point, please focus on the point, not the incorrect math), but that is not realistic in all cases. Look at AK. He had stretches of a season where everyone thought he would become a 30-40 goal scorer. He has never done it, though. We can all assume Hall will be a 70-85 point man, but he sure as heck shouldn't have been paid like one before ever even breaking 60 points! The Oilers should have tried to get him in at Pacioretty levels for a shorter term contract to see if Hall's durability can sustain a full season and to see if he actually breaks the 60 point mark with his current team.

Sorry for jumping into your conversation, but it is a fun one I just had to speak towards. Feel free to ignore me.
I also think that a lot of GMs signed long-term deals due to uncertainty over CBA negotiations. This was a collective behavior around the league and is thus probably justified.

You wrote a fairly big range for Hall, 70-85 points, and obviously if he had signed a 2-year, 4.5 million per year contract the range would have probably dropped at the end, increasing the odds of a fair deal. However, the GM had to weigh the risk versus the risk of a new CBA going in a direction he doesn't like.

Also, it's a 7-year contract. He might be overpaid next year, but by the 7th year, which is actually in 8 seasons, so 2020-2021, he might be severely underpaid at 6 million per year. He'll be 29 years and in his prime, and if you factor in a conservative 3% annual growth in the cap his salary will be 23% depreciated by the end of his contract relative to his peers.

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