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10-22-2012, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I can't derive a contract value for Hall if you don't state what you think the $500,000 "AHL player" would get in that role.

The idea is that let's say there's a plethora of $500,000 players who can easily get 40 points in that role (you might believe it's 30 or 50 points), that means the first 40 points only gets you $500,000 in pay (because "anybody" can do that role), and you only make real money (in player terms) for production above that (because that's "specialized" labor).

But anyway, let's assume you think 40 like I wrote in my original post, that is, there's a ton of cheap replacement players out there ready to come in and get 40 points, then the first 40 points are worth $500,000.

You write that 63 points for Pacioretty is worth 4.5 million, that means an extra 23 points above replacement buys you an extra 4 million in salary.

You then write that Hall will get 73 points, 33 points above replacement. So the salary above replacement is: 33/23*4 = 5.74 million in salary for points 41 through 73, add in the $500,000 for points 1 through 40 and in your estimation Hall is worth 6.24 million per year.

This approximation does not account for:

1) Other contributions than points such as playing on the PK, hitting, forechecking, as I'm not sure what Hall can do in those situations. This is partly because I'm not sure how to account for them, and partly because I'm not sure what Hall can do.
2) Injury probability. Both players have already had one concussion and are thus both high-risk imo.
3) The fact Hall's contract ends at age 29 (goes through 7 years), and Pacioretty's contract ends at age 31 (goes through 6 years).
4) Cap appreciation/depreciation, which is zero in this case as they signed the contract in the same manner, but would otherwise cause significant swing.

You discuss potential and risk, but you projected Hall as being a 73 point player. If you were going by potential alone you would have said 80-90 points I think. You're already accounting for risk when stating 73 points.
Bold, so you're saying Hall HIT 73 points? That's the discussion here. Some feel Eller has be a 2nd line center or better. Is he worth 4 mil per or more then? Subban has potential to be an elite d-man, should he get 6-6.5 per? That's the question here. Hall hasn't done it yet.

Now, in regards to his 70-75 points, no, it was not with risk. You said over an 82game season. In reality, I see Hall hitting 60-65 per over whatever time he plays.

My projection is fairly simple. Hall is a LW. The top scoring LW in the game last year was ilya kovalchuk who is supremely stronger and more talented than Hall and he hit 83 points. 75 points would've made him the 4th most productive LW in the NHL. This is me including risk? LW and RW combined he'd be a top 9 winger in the game with 75 points. Risk and injury included 75 points was a very nice gesture on my part.

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