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10-26-2012, 10:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
I watched that come out frame by frame and I saw it happening and thought, "Man, it would really just be a kick in the groin if it came back and hit LI after going southwest..." And lo and behold it did. If it did that it would be awful, first surge on the north shore then surge on the south shore? I know its never happened on LI to my knowledge, but based on the upper level setup its a big, cutoff low so it would meander given that solution.

That being said, I think the most likely landfall is into central, south central New Jersey attm, but it wont really matter since this storm is so huge the wind and precip shield is going to be so large we're still going to see winds in excess of 50 mph and gusts of hurricane strength... if anything passing off to the south will just build up the surge over the south shore. I saw HPC's latest forecast called for 5-6 inches of rain, which doesnt seem unreasonable

Keep a close eye on it though, since the track still isnt
At this point ill take the 5-6" of rain if the winds stay down ..

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