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10-26-2012, 12:28 PM
  #107
Scurr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Refute the Jonathan Willis's article. He recognizes 34 points as the threshold, not me.
I'm sure when he wrote the article it wasn't to give one guy credit for consistent top 6 scoring with a 35 point season and call another unproven because he only managed 32. Some common sense should be used.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Do you consider Corsi On offense/defense/both? Further, what's your threshold for defining "good" Corsi numbers and why?
Corsi is a nice stat but as I'm sure you are aware it needs to be put into context. Zone starts, quality of competition and quality of teammate all need to be factored, it makes the stat somewhat subjective based on how strongly you feel those effects are. Somebody with a good Corsi number, imo, is having a positive effect, all things considered. I try to consider all the factors.

I also think the overall performance of the team in terms of possession has a significant effect on individual players Corsi. The relative number gives an indication how you're doing in comparison to your teammates but I don't think it translates well team to team.

The Leafs were a poor possession team last season, they gave up two more shots than they generated per game. Grabovski is the only guy that sticks out to me as having a really positive effect. How do you see it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
I'm going to answer this by saying that Steen did more at a younger age. Nothing you say changes that.
OK, but what effect does that have on the players going forward? I understand why Logan Couture getting 56 points at 21 is significant, he's likely to keep progressing and piling up more points. Steen hasn't done that, so I'm not sure why it matters?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Did you say Bozak compares well at the same age? Please explain.
at 25/26

Tyler Bozak 18 goals 29 assists 47 points -4.99 corsi on -4.9 corsi relative
Alex Steen 24 goals 23 assists 47 points -0.87 Cosi on -3.8 Corsi relative

Steen played tougher minutes but he also played on a team that had much better possession numbers. Steen had the better season at 25/26, but not by much and he was obviously more seasoned at that point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Oh I buy them. I just think your arguments on the matter are unsound because you choose to highlight specific cases (which themselves are suspect) instead of expanding your data set: To get a better/accurate picture of where Bozak might project to be (instead of guessing) you will need to show many similar players following a Corsi On increase through their development track. You would also have to show TOs negative effects on such players. Otherwise, it's just wishful thinking on your part.
I'm not trying to make the case Bozak will end up being as good as Steen, I'm trying to make the case he can. You're acting like there is a world of difference between these two players up to this point in their career's but the numbers don't reflect that. Bozak is a nice throw in for us if we can tighten up his defensive game, something our coaching staff is very good at with forwards. When I watch him play, I see a guy that is committed defensively and plays the physical aspects well but needs to work on positioning and system play. Like I said, that was pretty standard on the Leafs, it shouldn't be surprising a young guy in their organization is lacking in those areas.


Last edited by Scurr: 10-26-2012 at 04:38 PM.
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