Thread: Prospect Info: Winnipeg Jets Prospect Thread 2012-13
View Single Post
Old
10-26-2012, 03:31 PM
  #500
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 9,025
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
Thanks for the feedback. Interestingly enough, the year that Locke scored 151 points (2.28 PPG), Wellwood scored 100 (1.75 PPG). They are both small, yet here is Wellwood, 10 years later, despite his defensive limitations,with a successful NHL career.
How can you be that small and score that many points without being a good skater?? I'm honestly curious, because, now that my focus is, for the first time, on Junior hockey, I am fascinated by who makes it and who doesn't.
Agreed, it is becoming increasingly interesting to me too.
When you break it down, how well someone does now in Junior, which has a certain system and style, won't always translate.

Many things can cause this and it's not uncommon for say player 'A' to be currently better than 'B', but 'B' is the only one that goes on with a successful career:
  • certain styles may translate to the higher level better
  • a huge problem with looking at development with Junior stats is that sooo much context is missing... there's no sh%/shots to see if someone's scoring was inflated, no TOI to see if someone is scoring more just because they are on the ice more, no way to gauge quality of competition to see if the person is lining up against the best (power vs power) or weak 3rd/4th liners (power vs checking), no way to tell how much of the person's stats are inflated by o-zone starts, PP and quality of better line-mates, etc.
  • A may be better than B but closer to plateauing
  • certain skills are fixable and can be developed while some are just natural; A may be better than B in the fixable skills but the natural ones will never come to him
  • it's ignored but politics can have a huge influence to; better oppertunities to develope
  • slightly off topic, but in my stats course we went over how in every major sport there is a higher percentage of players in the Pros who have birthdays early and closer to cutoff ages in minor leagues; the theory is they are older so more developed when they first start the sport, so they are better and get better developmental oppertunities

I always use this as an example:
I love our prospect Kosmachuk; I think he's guaranteed to be a mid-round gem for us... but, he scored almost the same amount as Yakupov yet every scout knows there is a huge difference in potentials.

garret9 is offline