Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur
Without speaking to the specifics here...if you present an claim that "X is true", then all it takes is a single counterexample where "X is not true" to prove that it's flawed. That's how logic works.

You mean 'all (or every) x is true' can be disproven with a single example.
In any event this isn't about logic, it's about evaluating and predicting productivity.
Math and Logic are distinct studies. Just as reasoning, rhetoric and argument are not the same as Logic. Logicians attempted to codify math and reasoning and came to the conclusion that it can't be done.
Logic can't really be applied here at all since there are no well formed formulae or system such as can be found in Linguistics or Math. We're just a bunch of guys spitballin'.
Besides that, the averaging is being done to all the seasons as a set of seasons. The effect on the players is just a consequence of that. A single season does not address this at all and so it cannot be that single counter example. That's reasoning not logic. Imperfect or otherwise.