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10-28-2012, 11:18 PM
  #1012
Numbers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Liskeard View Post
No one said the only destination is the Leafs. Keeping Lou unitl next year, with the potential UFA goalies on the market at that point will not help his value.
That logic makes sense, but now we need to analyze all these goaltenders you speak of and who will replace them on their current teams:

1. Nick Backkstrom: will be 35 and is probably the most interesting of the bunch. Josh Harding and Matthew Hackett might be inline to replace, but with all Minnesota's current upgrades(Parise, Suter) do they really want to give up their top goalie when they can compete now.

2. Tim Thomas: will be 39, and played no season prior quite a risk.

3. Evgeni Nabokov: will be 38 and could retire/slide in backup role nicely or again like Thomas team could take risk. Islanders have Dipietro and a couple youngsters to replace.

4. Mike Smith: probably best free agent goalie, but there are reports Coyotes are trying to lockup long term. I would say will most likely be resigned, but if not they would need a replacement

5. Jimmy Howard: solid goaltender. He will surely be either resigned by Detroit or they could very well enter the Luongo sweep stakes. Detroit will need a serious replacement if Howard departs.

6. Jose Theodore: will be 37 and again is similar to Nabokov and Thomas. Could retire, but seems unlikely to become a new teams starter in 2013. Might be a nice backup.

Here are top UFA tenders for 2013 to date. If they all depart I think teams interested in Luongo could go after Backstrom, Smith and Howard, but the rest look like they could retire or are very risky. Smith will most likely be resigned. That leaves Backstrom and Howard. If Howard goes I think Detroit becomes a front runner for Luongo and raises his value. Backstrom seems like the most probable goalie to lower Luongo's value, but as I mentioned before Minnesota have went all in for Suter and Parise and look to compete now. Their alternatives do not look like upgrades and that would seem like a step backward. I think that the number of goalies available next year is overblown. Luongo is still a significant upgrade over all of them, maybe not Smith arguably. From a Toronto perspective I don't think it's anything to be too excited over, because this year Vokoun was available and they did not pick him up, Backstrom is along the same lines as Vokoun for quality and age. At any rate next years UFA crop does not look to damage Luongo's value significantly, that is assuming he is still available. The only way goalies like Theodore, Thomas, or Nabokov look valuable to Toronto is if they need a backup. I think in a situation if Reimer turned out well and needs a backup these guys could be valuable. Though if you look at the contract Scrivens signed, he is waiver exempt this year but not next, he looks to be the backup. Regardless those goalies would not affect Luongo's value, because Toronto would no longer need a #1 in this scenario.


Last edited by Numbers: 10-29-2012 at 01:09 AM.
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