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10-31-2012, 08:20 PM
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Originally Posted by RaMMuT View Post

I mean yes they are very expensive and small, but in 10 years...I think the value will almost double. And if you buy a condo you have to think about this because sooner or later (say 5-10 years max) you will either:
A) Rent it out and let your rental income pay the mortgage, or
B) Sell it and make some 100k+ profit that you can use as a downpayment for your next house.
I see you have a lot of faith in this idea that the real estate market will double, and continuously grow, and get bigger. You do realize that such thinking is flawed, and this is what any real estate agent and developer would like you to believe.

It's this line of thinking that creates big trouble.

BTW: Montreal condo prices decline in August

To some up my opinion quickly, condo is the riskiest of any residential real estate investment, because:

- If employment levels dip - condos lose out right away on single dwelling renters, who will either move back home, move out of the city etc.. This creates a sudden surge of supply and drastic vacancy jump and price drop.

Example. Two men have the same job. 1 is renting or paying off a mortgage on a condo in Montreal. The other is married with kids, and is paying off a mortgage on a house in NDG.

The man in NDG will have the abilty to rely on his wifes income, and has the obligation to keep that home since he has kids and packing up and moving is not as easy.

The man that owns the condo has a much higher chance of wanting to sell asap. Again - more people wanting to sell - more choice for buyer - less demand for each unite - prices stagnate or drop.

- Supply can be endless. This is true in the city but even more true in suburbs. Every time a new project is built on a piece of land you are adding hundreds of units.

Example, a condo in Laval, might seem like a gem today, but tomorrow there will be 5 equivalents with a block radius.

A safer investment is a home, sitting on precious land in the city, such as Cote-st.luc / NDG, Westmount, tmr etc.

The value is going up, some people might say that there will be a real estate market crash here in Montreal, I respond by telling them to look at the Vancover and the rest of Canada's real estate market. It will just keep going up.
Vancouver Housing Bubble: Prices Decline By 25 Per Cent

Toronto condo sales plunge, prices stagnate

And the correction is not even complete - this is just the beginning.

However we can not compare the market to Toronto with Montreal. Toronto is a lot more global and foreign money is a lot more interested in Toronto than Montreal.

Now, if you believe that the our economic forecasts in the next 5 to 10 years is all rosey and that employment opportunities will be growing at a faster rate than they have been, than I can rationalize a purchase in todays market.

However if job growth remains stagnant and supply continues to grow this rate - I don't see prices doubling in 10 years. Surely not for condos, be it downtown or off the island.

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