Thread: Matt Duchene
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11-01-2012, 01:35 PM
  #67
CobraAcesS
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
TBH, I have a Yip-like feeling with McGinn. When Yip potted all his goals I said that he wouldn't be able to repeat his success, he was shooting at too high of a percentage and really wasn't all that talented.

While it's not as severe with McGinn, I have a feeling we won't be seeing much more than 15ish goals from him next season, maybe 20 (which isn't even close to the pace he scored with us, even if he hits 20). It's not a case of being untalented, but moreso of simply being lucky, working hard to impress a new coach and getting favorable opportunities when he arrived.
I completely agree with Bender here, but what he didn't site is McGinn's career shooting percentage. It wasn't luck at all, his career shooting percentage is 10.8%. With a couple of 11.5% or better seasons and one season where he wasn't able to score for some reason and put up a 1.5% shooting percentage, that brought his average down quite a bit.

2006-2007 Ottawa 67's-OHL 68 G46 43 89 -4 49 21 3
2006-2007 Worcester Sharks-AHL 4 1 1 2 -1 4 0 0 0
2007-2008 Ottawa 67's-OHL 51 G29 29 58 10 54 11 3
2007-2008 Worcester Sharks-AHL 8 0 2 2 -4 0 0 0
2008-2009 Sharks 35 4 2 6 -6 2 1 0 1 27 14.8%
2008-2009 Worcester Sharks-AHL 47 19 11 30 4 52 8 0 1
2009-2010 Sharks 59 10 3 13 -3 38 0 0 2 76 13.2%
2009-2010 Worcester Sharks-AHL 27 7 14 21 5 15 4 1 3
2010-2011 Sharks 49 1 5 6 -6 33 0 0 0 63 1.6%
2010-2011 Worcester Sharks-AHL 30 9 11 20 -7 27 3 2 2 78 11.5%
2011-2012 Sharks GP 61 12 12 24 1 26 3 0 0 S 104 11.5%
2011-2012 Avalanche GP 17 8 5 13 -4 11 3 0 2 S 55 14.5%
NHL Totals 221 35 27 62 -18 110 7 0 5 325 10.8%

McGinn also has a legit history of being a goal scorer in junior as well. The other big change is his shots per game, he went from averaging 1.7 shots per game and about 11 minutes a night with the Sharks to averaging 3.23 shots per game and about 16 minutes per night.

In interviews on his way over to the Avs before even playing a game he had talked about being told he was going to get more ice time, and also eluded to scoring goals as being a focus.

I think they had known about and followed McGinn long before we acquired him and completely thought that there was a possibility that they could find a diamond in the rough based on some of those numbers.

Lastly McGinn was able to score on the power play and connect with other players as well when it comes to scoring, not even close to all of his goals or points came connected to Stastny. McGinn was the first one of guys like Jones and Stewart who I felt didn't completely ride Stastny's playmaking ability. McGinn got quite a few points with his speed and by working hard down low and driving to the net. I think his work ethic, a rise in ice time, and better line-mates all can legitimately explain better numbers that are not exactly outside of what he has shown glimpses of in the past.

14.5% may not be a number he can sustain over a full season, but I do believe 11.5-12.5% is within his abilities based on what hes done. 3.23 SHPG X GP 82 is 265 shots over an 82 game season. 12% of even 230 shots is 28 goals (27.6), yeah I think McGinn has a very good chance of hitting 25 goals or better over a full season playing 1st line minutes with Stastny. I personally think he can hit 30 but that's the optimist in me.

(10.8% of 265 is 28.6G / 11.5% of 265 is 30.5G / 12.5% of 265 is 33G / 14.5% of 265 is 38.5G ...) My guess is Greg from accounting could do this math in his head when looking at McGinn's statistical history.


Last edited by CobraAcesS: 11-01-2012 at 02:19 PM.
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