Thread: Proposal: Detroit - Vancouver
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11-01-2012, 08:28 PM
eklunds source
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Originally Posted by TOGuy14 View Post
In nearly the same amount of starts, Howard was statistically better than Luongo last year, why would Detroit do this and take on that albatross contract?

Jimmy Howard: .920 SV% | 2.12 GAA | 6 SO
Roberto Luongo: .919 SV% | 2.41 GAA | 5 SO
Originally Posted by DatsyukToZetterberg View Post
May I ask what team has Loungo played on in the same peroid..? Ah yes the Vancouver Canucks who have won back to back Presidents' Trophy (that's the best team in the regular season in case you didn't know), if you're going to say Howard is lower in the goalie Totem pole because of his team than Loungo surely has to be further down as well.

I would also argue that the wings would only move Howard for Loungo if Edler or something of similar overpayment was coming back to them. While Loungo will more than likely have a better career than Howard I don't care about what he did 10 years ago, or what he did 5 years ago. The truth is they have been almost identical stat wise the past 3 years, if it hadn't been for a midseason injury in which Howard rushed back from, he would have posted Vezina caliber numbers. With Howard being 5 years younger I don't think it's hard to see why it would take an overpayment for the wings to trade the better goalie while taking on a much worse contract.

2011-12 NHL 55 31 14 8 3162 127 1577 2.41 .919 5
2010-11 NHL 60 38 15 7 3590 126 1753 2.11 .928 4
2009-10 NHL 68 40 22 4 3899 167 1915 2.57 .913 4

2011-12 NHL 57 35 17 4 3360 119 1496 2.13 .920 6
2010-11 NHL 63 37 17 5 3615 168 1830 2.79 .908 2
2009-10 NHL 63 37 15 10 3740 141 1849 2.26 .924 3

Can you tell which goalie is which? Can you really tell that one is a top 10 goalie yet the other is only a top 15, or 20 goalie? Yes Howard had that down year in 10-11 but he absolutely stood on his head during the wings injury riddled months and unless you saw him play you don't know he kept us in games we didn't even belong in. Bringing playoffs into the picture we can see that Howard is a lot less volatile than Loungo but Howard has less of a sample size so it's pretty much a wash.

All in all while Loungo is certainly worth a solid package his best days are behind him, you almost certainly won't be getting anything of value from the Wings for him.
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
I didnt do the whole match (i could do it later if i have the time)

But the difference between having a Luongo and a Howard, according to the past 3 years is about 3-4 less goals allowed per season (if they play around 65 games) to the advantage of Luongo.

I will let you judge if the bigger cap it and the lost of asset to acquire Luongo worth the 3-4 goal difference.
Just to address Howard vs. Luongo a little bit here..

- Goalies have a lower save percentage when their team is shorthanded versus when they're at even strength. That's not rocket surgery or brain science. As such, teams who take more penalties are 'artificially' lowering their goaltenders' save percentage. The same effect is more pronounced when a team goes down 5-on-3; some years it just happens more often than others so comparing a two goaltenders' overall save percentage on different teams is useless.

- Goalies who face less shots allow less goals. That's pretty much common sense too. A good defensive team limits the number of shots they give up, so measuring goals allowed per unit of time (goals/season, GAA, etc) is useless between teams too.

- Going back to even strength save percentage... It's also very variable year-to-year. A goalie with a talent level of, let's say, 0.925sv% at even strength might post anywhere from 0.920 to 0.930 in any given year, or maybe even just outside of that. There are so many goals that occur that are completely out of a goalie's control that it's pretty much random luck. Sometimes the puck goes in when it really shouldn't, and sometimes it doesn't go in when it really should. See below:

- There's so much variance in goaltending, as it were, that it takes about 3,000 shots at even strength before you really know how good a goalie is. If you don't believe me, look at Steve Mason - he posted a 0.925sv% at even strength over his first 61 games, and since then he's been under 0.900.

Over the past 5 seasons, Luongo has had even strength save percentages of:

So we can probably safely assume that his 'talent level' is somewhere in the ballpark of a 0.930sv%. As it turns out, Luongo's even strength save percentage has been between 0.925 and 0.936 every single year of his career, including when he was in Florida.

Howard (going back 3 years):


So, probably somewhere in the ballpark of 0.923, 0.924. That could change, it's still pretty early in his career, but goaltenders don't typically improve radically after age 27..

The difference between a 0.930sv% and a 0.924sv% at even strength, if we assume a goalie faces ~1300 shots (that's about 65 games), is 8 goals a season. Goalies who are better at even strength are also better on the penalty kill, so let's say 9 goals.

A goal differential of +3 goals gives you ~1 point in the NHL standings, so the difference between Luongo and Howard as your starting goaltender is somewhere around 1.5 wins per season, or 3 points in the standings.

Of course, that doesn't take into account length of service (Howard probably has 5-6 years more than Luongo left in him) or other factors, but as a rough guide it's probably pretty accurate..

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