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11-02-2012, 02:58 AM
Circulartheory's Avatar
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Originally Posted by oilsp1ll View Post
It's not exactly absolute to say I would be shocked. It's just my opinion, I didn't tell anybody to take it as gospel. Just seems like one of those drafts to me. I might revise my statement to say I'd be shocked if more one player outside the first round turned into a legit NHLer, I might lean more towards that.

I just looked quickly through 2003-2007 drafts for WHL forwards outside the 1st round and these were the results for impact players (players that could be everyday players on any team in the league, no healthy scratch/tweener guys): It's seems not entirely unusual to have only 1 player outside the first round from the WHL become a legit player, don't think it's completely out of the question to suggest this. I was probably out of line saying zero players, but I think 1 is an OK number to bet on. 2004 seems like an anomaly especially considering the quality of players produced compared to other years.

2003 - Colin Fraser, Macarthur, Nate Thompson, Brodziak
2004 - Comeau, Dubinsky, Boyd, Versteeg, Brouwer
2005 - Darren Helm
2006- Lucic, Dorsett
2007 - Dwight King
Well, when your sample size is only 5 years, its hard to say what is an anomaly and what isn't.

Yes, based on those 5 years you listed, chances range from 22% to 7% success rate after the 1st round in terms of WHL forwards. Again, small sample so its hard to say.

It is your opinion, and your totally entitled to it, I'm not bashing you but just letting you know, "shocked" is a very strong word, its an absolute term IMO

Really, I know even though this isn't really an English language forum, I guess that is what I had the most gripe about, the use of "shocked". Because for me, I think there are some good prospects to be found after the 1st round, but then again, I am very open to the idea that none of them turn out. When it comes to prospects, there is no absolutes. Not even first overall picks.

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