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11-04-2012, 08:26 PM
Kriss E
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I don't buy into the injured-markov theory. In the previous two seasons Markov was injured as well and we finished 8th and 6th.

Any team that's weak is one-injury away from being in the lottery. However, you shouldn't blame the injury for being in the basement. Strong teams can withstand injuries to key players. Philadelphia was 5th but with only ~15 games of Chris Pronger. Pittsburgh was 4th but with only ~20 games of Crosby, et cetera.

You can't blame injuries for being the third worst team in the league, unless you mean to argue that we would have been 8th worst and not 3rd worst if everyone had been healthy, to which I answer, if everyone is healthy, you should be top-4 in the conference. A good team is a team that when losing a key player to injury finishes 5th-8th rather than 1st-4th, like the 2010-2011 Habs. Conversely, a team that's a bubble team "when everyone is healthy" isn't a true bubble team, because the odds of a no-injury miracle season are incredibly small.

Anyway, our roster didn't change much. I predict 11th-15th place in the conference, where the range represents the effects of "luck". There are no significant changes this year, the significant changes will come, at a minimum, when some of our best prospects, Galchenyuk, Tinordi, Beaulieu, Leblanc, Ellis, Collberg, Kristo, Holland, Gallagher, Pateryn, crack the NHL roster and become effective players. Pick any 3 of those 10 guys to succeed -- which I think are legitimate odds -- and you have a significant change.

For me, how I visualize Habs team building is entirely about maximizing our odds during our cup contention window of 2015-2020. We have good pieces in place for that series of runs. That's great news. We should add some more pieces then.
Actually I wasn't referring to Markov at all. I was talking about in future years, say PK and Price get injured for most of a season, money would be on us finishing last. That's what I was referring too.

If we still had Cammy and AK, I'd expect us to be a PO team. But management traded those guys away and didn't replace them with better scorers.
However, we also finished last because of the coaching change. RC had absolutely no clue as to how to run this club, none. It was one of the worst display of coaching I've seen in a very long time.
I'm not sold on Therrien, but already he's an improvement. As for the rest of our roster, as I said, there's too many question marks to really be sold on any idea.
This lockout is even more annoying because it should have been an evaluation year for our team.

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