Adjusted stats - how valuable?
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11-04-2012, 10:58 PM
Just a Fool
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Guelph, Ont
Originally Posted by
Czech Your Math
It makes sense that it's possible that scoring changes comparatively between tiers, for various reasons. You presume to know the direction of the change, but I doubt that the direction is constant. I also would guess the magnitude (at least that part of the magnitude due to the changing scoring environment) may be substantially less than you think.
Overall you're prolly right but again, we deal mostly with outliers and the top 1% here so even a small number will exponentially change the overall picture for these players.
For example, based on the numbers Overpass presented here
Top tier players have a 13.4% increased share of total goals from 1983 compared to 2008.
You take Gretzky's 159 adjusted points from 1983 and that 13.4% increase changes his share so that he would have a projected 180 points in 2008 or a 9.3% increase projecting from 1983 to 2012 equaling 174 point projection.
Suddenly not so insignificant
Obviously this is just a rough example but even at about half that 13.4% at a 7% increase share, it changes that 159 to 170.
Bottom line: more research and analysis needs to be done if one wants to compare players from different eras with increased confidence.
Last edited by Rhiessan71: 11-04-2012 at
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