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11-05-2012, 01:23 PM
  #484
nyr2k2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canon1990 View Post
Thats fine, just curious, that must mean you consider every single player in the AHL a bust aside from about 10% of the players who will make the NHL on a full time basis?
A player selected in the third round of the average NHL draft has about a 10-15% success rate as far as becoming an NHL regular. It's certainly no massive failing if a player picked 80th overall never amounts to anything other than an AHL role player. However, from my perspective, it still amounts to a failed draft pick. Ryan Bourque wasn't drafted to become a bottom-six AHL player, he was drafted to become a bottom-six NHL player.

Like successes, failures come in different magnitudes. Failing on the 80th pick in the draft is less damaging than failing on Hugh Jessiman. One pick is expected to perform, whereas the other is largely a shot in the dark. Regardless, that the magnitude of the failure is smaller doesn't somehow alter the fact that it is still a failure.

The popular label "boom-or-bust prospect" isn't reserved for players drafted in the first round. You take a flier on a guy like Bourque knowing that if things break right, you have a mini-Ryan Callahan. If things go wrong--if he busts!--you have a concussed pile of mediocrity. Bourque appears to have busted.

To answer your question directly--many career AHL players are busts in the sense that they were failed NHL draft picks. That's it. Many of these busts are still fine players in their own right, succeeding in one of the most competitive hockey leagues in the world. I would never dispute that.

Failed third round pick = draft bust.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Levitate View Post
From a NHL perspective, what's wrong with that? If you draft a player with the hopes that he makes an impact in the NHL, and he doesn't, then he's still a NHL bust even if he turns out to be a very good AHL player.

A bust doesn't have to mean a high pick with big expectations
And Lev makes my point in about 500 fewer words, LOL.

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