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11-05-2012, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
The problem with your "on pace for" argument is that he didn't play 78 games, he only played 59, and he didn't have 38 goals, he only had 29G 28A, and in a full season he has never had better than 34G 35A. Players go on cold streaks, that's not nearly close enough to 40/40 to say "if he'd only played those extra 5 games he would have gotten that 1 empty net goal". You could probably cherry pick a block of 59 games in any of his seasons and prorate that to a PPG season. It doesn't work that way, and neither does wrapping around from the precious year. If you take his last two months of play before the injury he had goalless streaks of 5 and 8 games, and only had a total of 8 goals in 21 games - which prorates to 31 goals - pretty much his career average. Which is why you look at entire seasons, not chunks.
And as I said, he scored 42-38 in his last 82 regular season games. That's almost identical to his per-82 pace from last season (40-39). This suggests that it's not a fluke of statistics. Plus, 59 GP is not an insignificant sample size in its own right.

Furthermore, if you can cherry pick a block of any consecutive 59 games, do you know what that makes him? A consistent PPG player. Which means that projecting his stats over a shortened season is not an abomination.

But, just to make you happy, here's Toews' career stats per-59 GP and per-82, not including last year:


That compares to his 29-28-57 last year, with 40-39-79 as the per-82 rate. He didn't score significantly higher than his career average in points; he increased his goal output and that was his primary scoring increase. He actually scored fewer APG than is his norm, in part because Kane spent plenty of time centering line 2 and Toews was suddenly the goal-scoring guy and the playmaker on the first line; very Yzerman-esque. If he plays with Kane on his wing next year, and a full season, he'll probably be closer to 35/40 goals and around 45 assists. Maybe higher. Given his career numbers those are completely reasonable totals. Only once in his career has he not been on 30+ goal pace, and he's always been on 35+ assist pace.

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