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11-06-2012, 09:01 AM
  #55
Shady Machine
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wgknestrick View Post
What have you called out? Nothing. Until I see a single ounce of data to support any of your opinions, (they will be just that). I have simply provided some data that contradicts your opinion, but now the data is "wrong"? How is it wrong? What are you calling out? More importantly, what is your proof that it is wrong? That is "calling out"; Don't just say something is wrong, but "prove it". Prove that TK sucks or whatever your agenda may be.

TK has played for just one team, and for the most part, a single coach. The /60min stats are used to put every player on the same baseline regardless of how much a team decides to use them. Players don't have a say on how often they hop over the bench, just what they do while on the ice. These stats are a decent indicator as to who is most likely to do "what" / minute of 5v5 ice time. It is a very common way to try to put things on a more even playing field. Sure, we can look at season totals, but they don't tell us much because they aren't adjusted for ice time (quantity and type).

The better question is "Why doesn't TK get more minutes in spite of being fairly productive while on the ice?" This is a much better question over holding a single person's opinion (Byslma's) as infallible and assuming he is effectively utilizing every single player to the fullest extent. Would you also use this flawed logic and state that OV was a sub par player because Hunter barely played him last year? Coach utilization should never be used in any evaluation because it is 100% dependent on the coach being "right" or not. Might as well flip a coin.

Also remember that TK played on Staal's line. Staal's line generally went up against the #1-#2 lines. (there is also data to prove this too). I would estimate that most teams don't pair up their 3rd pairing D men with their top 2 lines very often. I definitely know they aren't forcing their 3rd pairing out against TK to get their "match-up".
What I am "calling you out" on is making conclusions of near certainty (Kennedy is a good top 6 winger) based on a projection of ONE statistic. That is extremely poor logic when it comes to forecasting any type of data. Statistical analysis is a complicated process and even multiple linear regression models usually have a "model of precision" factor/adjustment that is used for the "qualitative piece" of the equation.

In this case, the very simple statistic that you are proposing needs to be taken with the larger context as well as coaching experts, the team's needs, scoring at other levels, etc. As Ogre pointed out, just by using one other statistic (games injured per 60min) it is evident that TK would likely play less games and therefore wouldn't score at the pace you are projecting. In addition, there is a point where increased ice time leads to decreased effectiveness. I'm not arguing that 14 min is TK's max effectiveness, but rather playing him 20 minutes ES is no guarantee that he would produce at the same pace (or even a similar pace).

Additionally, we all know that there has been a top 6 winger spot for the taking over the last few years so the opportunity has been there. You could argue that it is a coaching error to not put TK there, but from what I've seen, and have mentioned several times in this thread, TK just doesn't have the hockey IQ, passing creativity or style to play with Sid or Geno. So, IMO, you wouldn't see a net increase in goals scored on the top 2 lines by adding him. I can't "prove" that, but to me, I'll trust the coaching staff, my own eyes, and the analysis of the best posters on this board over one projected statistic and a poster claiming that TK is in the same class as Backstrom.

At the end of the day, your position is still your opinion. You are backing it up by one statistic and in every statistic there are outliers. Based on everything I've watched and read, TK is an outlier for that statistic. Also, I'd be interested to see what his production for that stat over his career. I will admit, and always have, that TK is a very effective player and is a great third line winger. He is extremely hard working, chippy, and can produce big time goals as we have seen in past playoffs. I like him very much, but I know he has limitations. It seems we disagree on these limitations.

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