US Elections: Incumbent Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney, Et Al
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11-06-2012, 12:39 PM
Join Date: Oct 2007
Originally Posted by
Nate Silver had it at 91% chance for Obama yesterday.
I'm a little sceptical of his model,
though the methodology of going by state to state polling seems fairly sound. I guess we'll know tonight.
As yo should be. Questions I'd like to ask Mr. Silver:
1) Given your "model" is based on state polling, why is it logically any more apt to be right if the polls in a given cycle are wrong?
2) Why didn't you come clean about your Obama2008 relationship?
3) How is what you're doing
different from a smart high school kid putting polls in excel and running a simple Monte Carlo simulation? (i.e. why cant anyone do this)
4) How do you decide which polls to include or not and there weights? (because pro-Obama polls seem to often get better weighing)
My own opinion? A big part of Nate Silver's "job" at the New York Times is to increase Democratic voter enthusiasm and thus voter turnout.
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