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11-06-2012, 12:50 PM
  #91
BenedictGomez
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: PRNJ
Country: United States
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackhawkswincup View Post
In 08 the youth vote for Obama was a big thing ,,
The youth vote wont be there in the #'s it was in 08
True. But the other difference is that Republicans were meh on McCain to begin with, and everyone knew he'd lose (suppresses turnout).

And anecdotally, McCain wasnt drawing 25,000+ to cornfields in rural PA. I think the R to D gap is being greatly exaggerated in these polls. And frankly, the Early Voter data where Obama is underperforming supports that hypothesis.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
We'll see. With several state polls (even the Republican leaning ones) showing consistent movement toward Obama over the last week, Romney's only chance is if the pollsters are all oversampling Democrats to an absurd degree.
Exactly, but that's not that far-fetched. Do disagree on Silver though, I think if you learned more about his past failures, or over-trumped "correct" predictions, you'd be less enthralled with him. Lets just say, I dont think he'll ever be working elections in the UK again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
Have you ever seen the British comedy "Yes Minister"?
No, but it sounds pretty funny. Will check out if it's on BBC America or NF.

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