US Elections: Incumbent Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney, Et Al
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11-06-2012, 11:55 AM
Join Date: Jun 2009
Originally Posted by
As yo should be. Questions I'd like to ask Mr. Silver:
1) Given your "model" is based on state polling, why is it logically any more apt to be right if the polls in a given cycle are wrong?
4) How do you decide which polls to include or not and there weights? (because pro-Obama polls seem to often get better weighing)
I don't know anything about the other two questions, but I'll address these with some questions of my own:
1. How have you decided that all the polls that show a certain result must be wrong? Different pollsters have different biases, and he is taking the average of them. It's not like he's throwing out the Gallup and Rasmussen results because they tend to lean toward the GOP.
If you think there is a systematic bias against the Republicans across several polling firms, why do you think that? What methods are they using that do not simulate reality? What methods should they be using, and which pollsters are doing that? How could they all be biased against one party, is what I'm asking?
4. This one I think he does address. Over the years, pollsters show obvious house effects on their results. Some skew heavily Democratic, some skew heavily Republican, some have a moderate lean one way or the other. He includes polls from reputable sources, like polling firms, media outlets, and universities. As far as I know he's not throwing out polls just because they come from Fox News or something like that.
As for the weighting, I think it's clear that older polls get less weight, and that polls with larger sample sizes get more weight. As for how he adjusts for house effects, I have to say I don't entirely know. I'm not convinced that Florida is truly a tossup right now, his adjustments have taken the state from slightly red to slightly blue and I don't think that's correct.
Originally Posted by
I made a comment about how Romney passed liberal legislation as MA governor because his people demanded it but now he has to appease the crazies in the tea party and take every stance opposite Obama.
Someone answers "Ya I get yappy when my side's losing too"
so ****ing ********...
This is one reason I don't like Romney. I live in a state that borders Massachusetts. He made the news here plenty. As the governor there he seemed like a RINO, a Republican in Name Only who really held many liberal positions, including passing a healthcare law that was the basis for Obamacare, which he now discredits. Then in the primaries, he slanted heavily to the right in order to get the votes from the Bible belt, flipping many of his previous positions and hoping that everyone would forget. And now in the general election he has attempted to paint himself as a moderate.
Which one of these three men is the real Romney? I really do not know, and that scares the hell out of me.
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