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11-06-2012, 02:02 PM
Ecrasez l'infame!
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BG, it would be helpful if you could dial back the condescension. We don't do this political talk often for obvious reasons, but you're assuming that you're smarter and better informed than everyone else is, and it gets somewhat annoying.

I have done a lot of research on this too, and it is quite possible for reasonable people to disagree and still be cordial to each other. That is all I ask of you. Attack my position all you like, but do not assume that I am a sheep to be led by the nose, because it insults my intelligence.

Now then:

I understand that there may be some systematic bias in the polls, but with Obama gaining some separation in the national polls over the last few days, I do not believe it could possibly be so far off as to have all of those state polls wrong. When you have 19 of 21 swing state polls of likely voters coming back yesterday with modest margins in favour of Obama, what other conclusion can you draw?

Maybe they are somehow all oversampling Democrats and overestimating their turnout, but more likely is that their likely voter methodology is more or less accurate and it does reflect the state of the race.

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