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11-06-2012, 02:27 PM
BenedictGomez's Avatar
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: PRNJ
Country: United States
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Originally Posted by VaxjoDevil View Post
I think VA closes at 7. And if Obama wins that state things look not too good for Romney. I don't trust exit polls though.
I am actually even more worried about VA right now for Romney than I am about OH.

Probably wont be called until 7:30pm or after, but if Romney loses VA, he 100% MUST win OH + either WI or IA + NH. Certainly possible, but far less likely.

Originally Posted by Saugus View Post

Like you, I do wonder at that one. Who is he taking more votes away from? Is it different in certain states, like in Colorado maybe he's siphoning more Romney votes and in Ohio he's taking more from Obama? Hard to predict the effect of his candidacy.
Johnson definitely takes from Obama in CO because of his pro-pot position. Tough to say elsewhere. Maybe he hurts Romney in NH because of their strong libertarian numbers, I could see GJ costing Romney NH.

In polls I saw with GJ in other places he only got like 3% in about 2:1 O:R proportion. But in the event you get a 1% state he could factor in.

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