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11-06-2012, 11:39 PM
  #57
wgknestrick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
What I am "calling you out" on is making conclusions of near certainty (Kennedy is a good top 6 winger) based on a projection of ONE statistic. That is extremely poor logic when it comes to forecasting any type of data. Statistical analysis is a complicated process and even multiple linear regression models usually have a "model of precision" factor/adjustment that is used for the "qualitative piece" of the equation.

In this case, the very simple statistic that you are proposing needs to be taken with the larger context as well as coaching experts, the team's needs, scoring at other levels, etc. As Ogre pointed out, just by using one other statistic (games injured per 60min) it is evident that TK would likely play less games and therefore wouldn't score at the pace you are projecting. In addition, there is a point where increased ice time leads to decreased effectiveness. I'm not arguing that 14 min is TK's max effectiveness, but rather playing him 20 minutes ES is no guarantee that he would produce at the same pace (or even a similar pace).

Additionally, we all know that there has been a top 6 winger spot for the taking over the last few years so the opportunity has been there. You could argue that it is a coaching error to not put TK there, but from what I've seen, and have mentioned several times in this thread, TK just doesn't have the hockey IQ, passing creativity or style to play with Sid or Geno. So, IMO, you wouldn't see a net increase in goals scored on the top 2 lines by adding him. I can't "prove" that, but to me, I'll trust the coaching staff, my own eyes, and the analysis of the best posters on this board over one projected statistic and a poster claiming that TK is in the same class as Backstrom.

At the end of the day, your position is still your opinion. You are backing it up by one statistic and in every statistic there are outliers. Based on everything I've watched and read, TK is an outlier for that statistic. Also, I'd be interested to see what his production for that stat over his career. I will admit, and always have, that TK is a very effective player and is a great third line winger. He is extremely hard working, chippy, and can produce big time goals as we have seen in past playoffs. I like him very much, but I know he has limitations. It seems we disagree on these limitations.
Looking back at the last 4 seasons with TK against Pens forwards:

What about Corsi? (2nd, 6th, 2nd, 4th on Pens)
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...52+53+54+55+56

+- / 60min?
TK finished 2nd, 3rd, 9th, and 5th on the Pens the last 4 years. I see 1 year of a being a bottom 6 forward out of 3 "top 6" performances.

All I keep finding is a player that has delivered fairly consistent results at 5v5 the last 4 years. 10/11 was his worst season though. Sure his point totals aren't impressive, but neither is his opportunity to compile high totals with very little PP time and limited ice time. You cannot deny that he has been very effective 5v5 his entire career.

Is Crosby a bad player because he is injured a lot per 60min of ice-time? TK has had concussion issues too.

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