Adjusted stats - how valuable?
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11-07-2012, 03:09 PM
Join Date: May 2012
Originally Posted by
Czech Your Math
You seem to be missing the concept of adjusted stats. Basically, the increased competition increases the difficulty of the "curve", since disproportionately more high scoring forwards should (other things being equal) increase the league avg. GPG, which would lower adjusted stats for any given level of raw production.
I can see arguments going both ways. The argument as to top players would be disproportionately adversely affected would probably be as follows. Three main reasons often cited for the decrease in league scoring in the 90s, and their possible implications are:
1. More defensive systems/coaching- These probably focus more on preventing the top lines from scoring, since they tend to do most of the scoring.
2. Lack of rules enforcement- Clutch and grab, hook and hold type play that was allowed in that era may hurt top players more, since it neutralizes those players' speed and skill, while lower line players may get more garbage goals and be used to that type of playing style (since they may play that way themselves more than top line players do).
3. Better/bigger goalie equipment- Larger coverage of the net due to larger goalie equipment and quicker reactions allowed by lighter equipment may hurt top players more, since they have much better aim and can "pick corners" and deke goalies more effectively. Players who may be getting a large % of goals in front of the net, off their stick or bodies, or who are throwing pucks blindly and/or randomly at the net and hoping to get lucky, may be less affected by such changes.
In every level of hockey I've ever played when the competition gets more difficult it tends to hurt those that were fringe to begin with and those at the top remain relatively unchanged. We're talking about the top 1% of players here generally. It is my opinion that they are unfairly dropped into the same pool of players that aren't the best. The cream rises to the top and there is no way in hell that the decline in scoring is spread evenly from the top all the way down to the fringe. Sometimes numbers can't be substituted for common sense.
I get the idea behind adjusted stats, but I believe they have some pretty big holes.
Last edited by habsfanatics*: 11-07-2012 at
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