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11-08-2012, 12:46 PM
  #294
uiCk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drydenwasthebest View Post
Incorrect. There is not a "lot of analysis" there are gut feelings based on a single poor year. Last year was a complete cluster****, it was FUBAR in every sense of the term due to multiple injuries, coaching stupidity, management idiocy, etc...

To do a proper analysis, one should look beyond a single season. For example: Montreal made the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons. We made the Conference quarterfinals twice, Conference semi-finals once, and the Conference finals once. That shows this is a competitive team that is capable of making, and even succeeding to some degree, in the playoffs. For a further analysis, we can look at one of our greatest areas of weakness last year: a lack of size and toughness. Prust and Armstrong are two players brought in to help address those weaknesses. Bouillon was alsoi brought in to strengthen the defensive strength and toughness. We also needed better support for Plekanec. Ideally Bourque and Gionta will help considerably in that regard. We are not even considering the rookies who could very well have an impact this season.

Other problems have also been addressed: we have a new GM who seems to have an eye for talent and is putting his stamp on this team. We have an entire new coaching staff and Head Coach who will, at the very least, bring a different atmosphere to a locker room that was lost by the coaching staff last season.

Now, there are no guarantees we will make the playoffs. However, if we do an actual analysis of our team that looks at a lot more than our record from last year, we can see the possibilities for success being higher than a small and simplified analysis of our one year record would indicate.
Nah , not really. like someone mentioned, roster changes account for alot, especially 5 years ago. Using data from 5 years ago will give you almost nothing, when you consider our roster change, 29 other teams that changed their roster, rule changes, coaching changes, management changes, etc. What you get from 5 years + ago, is more of general long term patterns and trends.

Vegas Odds would be best example off in-depth analysis, where their odds usually reflect last seasons standings + Playoff data + off season movement. Probability wise. Which is all we have anyways.

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