Adjusted stats - how valuable?
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11-08-2012, 01:16 PM
Czech Your Math
Join Date: Jan 2006
Originally Posted by
I wonder, though, just how "compressed" the talent really is. The talent pool has grown with the influx of European players but the league has grown in size right along with it. It seems to me that expansion in the 90s for all intents and purposes has mitigated the effects of the growing talent pool so that while there are more top players now courtesy of the larger talent pool they are spread across more teams resulting in that the proportion of top talent players versus lesser talent players per team has remained effectively the same.
Yes, it's difficult to say. Perhaps it's a wash, but I tend to believe there has been some compression of talent over the last ~35 years. Here is my general view (educated guess) as to how the NHL talent per team has changed since WWII:
before/during WWII- a relatively low population with often > 6 teams, which is then further diluted by WWII
late 40s to mid-50s- some players return from war, population increases, and talent per team roughly matches previous levels
mid-50s to early 60s- increase in roster size offsets continued population growth, so talent per team is diluted then makes it way back to roughly previous levels
60s- population increases further, and in the last few years before expansion, the talent really becomes compressed
late 60s to mid-70s- population increases further still, but massive and repeated expansion, as well as the WHA, serve to substantially dilute the talent per team
late 70s to mid-80s- NHL stops expanding, contract by one team, then absorbs WHA, while population continues to increase, all of which negate much of the previous dilution since expansion
mid-late 80s- Europeans trickle in further, and US becomes a significant source of talent again, which combined with lack of expansion further compresses talent
90s to present- hockey-age population seems to peak, while there is large influx of Euros/Russians... much of this is offset by expansion
Perhaps the overall talent per team is similar to the mid-late 80s, but I still tend to believe that there is more talent per team at the top. There were 21 teams then and 30 teams now, so the new talent would have to be ~30% of the current NHL for it to be roughly the same. The overall representation of US/Euro players probably hovers around that 30% mark, while the increase in their representation at the top has done so as well. Of course it varies by year and position. For instance, in the mid-late 90s, the top tiers of scoring forwards saw an increase of more than 30 percentage points, while expansion was still being completed (so the benchmark would be < 30%). Meanwhile, goalie representation was much less than 30% during that time. Since the lockout, top forwards have dipped under the 30% mark, while goalies have easily surpassed that level.
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