Adjusted stats - how valuable?
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11-08-2012, 02:14 PM
Czech Your Math
Join Date: Jan 2006
Originally Posted by
Ok, that sounds reasonable. Any chance of a study being done on it? I'd seriously like to read through it if one gets done.
As an aside, in an appendage to his book "The Game", Ken Dryden posted numbers regarding how many kids are playing lower-level hockey (ie the talent pool the pros draw from) as of 2003:
United States: 425,000
Czech Republic: 50,000
Now Dryden doesn't provide a footnote for his source for the data, but taking it at face value, is there any way that it can be shown just how much the talent pool has grown in proportion to how much the NHL has expanded?
I think those numbers are relevant to the talent pool, thanks for that info. One complication is that in countries like Russia and Czech Rep. participation may (at least at some time) have been limited to the most promising players in comparison to countries like the US and Canada.
Here is a relatively simple study I did:
Estimating NHL Available Talent Pool Over Time
I could have fleshed out the details more, but the basic assumption is that by using the Canadian % representation in the NHL and the Canadian hockey-age population, we can infer the effective non-Canadian hockey-age population that is available from the non-Canadian % representation. I used goalies and top tier scorers, because it's more likely that they are fully represented in the NHL (i.e. there may be less incentive for more marginal talents and/or their potential NHL teams to create an NHL opportunity for those players... and may be less scouting/info to properly evaluate and justify such an opportunity). A simplified example (there were other assumptions) would be that if there were 3 million male Canadians of hockey-age and Canada had 60% representation in the NHL, then the non-Canadian representation of 40% could be inferred to have derived from an effective non-Canadian population of ~2 million hockey-age males.
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