If this season resumes, do you you think we have a better shot at playoffs?
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11-08-2012, 06:50 PM
Join Date: Jul 2007
Originally Posted by
I dont see it. If the season were 10 games long...the Leafs would have neither a better or worse shot at the playoffs because every other team would also have 10 games to play. It would be an even playing field and it would just mean that every game would have importance...and teams would be playing at a much higher level knowing that each loss would be huge. The games more intense. All in all. 82 games or 10 games...the chances are the same.
I disagree, I think you overrate the impact of effort (both teams will be trying harder, it more or less cancels out), and underrate the effect of variance.
Let's say we have a below average team, with a 0.4 probability to win any given game (i.e. 40% chance), ignoring complicating factors like ties/OT/whatever:
- In a 1 game season the probability of us winning >50% of our games is 0.4 (40%)
- In a 10 game season the probability of us winning >50% of our games is 0.17 (17%)
- In a 20 games season the probability of us winning >50% of our games is 0.13 (13%)
- In a 40 game season the probability of us winning >50% of our games is 0.07 (7%)
- In an 80 game season the probability of us winning >50% of our games is 0.03 (3%)
If you're a weaker team, a short season means you still have a decent chance of putting together a good record, but the longer the season, the less probable it is that you'll be able to "beat the odds."
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