Thread: Sergei Fedorov
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11-09-2012, 12:40 AM
  #256
pdd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
I know. But he just implied that there was upwards of a 31 point swing when he took away 16 projected points from Staal and tacked on 15 for Datsyuk.

234 goals scored difference between the two conferences.
16 more goals per team in the East.
40 points with a 2.5 average multiplier = (1 goal, 1 primary assist and 0.5 secondary assists)

So if you guess the breakdown of those 40 points as being slightly weighted towards the high time and high scoring players... say
4 players get 4 extra points
4 players get 3 extra points
4 players get 2 extra points
4 players get 1 extra point
2 players get 0 extra points
There's your 40 points.

Staal wasn't in the first group in ice time or points. So he may have only been a difference of 3 points. Datsyuk might have gained an extra 4 in the East. For an average difference of maybe 3.5 points. Big whoop.
I weighted the 5-15 range based on the idea that teams have somewhere between 3-8 "core" offensive players depending on depth and team system, basically the "go-to" guys who were out there when a goal was needed. For some teams, such as a Rick Nash Columbus team, the same guy(s) were always out there. It's unlikely that Datsyuk would pick up the full 15 if the West were adjusted to be scoring like the East using a method to account for such things - probably closer to 5 or 10. But Staal would probably lose somewhere between 10-15, as Pittburgh's offense is not as deep; it simply rides a few highly talented players.

At some point I intend to actually do a study of scoring distribution in this regard, which would give a much better picture of how to evaluate players across division and conference lines. One example is that in Team 5/5 GF/GA ratio last season, the top two teams were both Central teams. The Central had three of the top ten and four of the top 14. The Atlantic had 3 of the top 7. In team +/-, the Central was 2/3, 3/8, and 4/11 while the Atlantic was again 3/7.

So we clearly have two top divisions statistically here just from that few moments of analysis. But this thread isn't about all of that, we'll leave it for later. The general point is that the East scores more than the West, and it's most notably pointed out when you compare the top scorers (almost all Eastern forwards), and then compare team totals (most Eastern teams are in the top 15, most Western teams are in the bottom 15). Those simple facts provide the indication that it's not just a few high end talents on top of the leaderboard, but a more widespread phenomenon leading to the Eastern players posting higher totals. It's almost a reverse of the 90s, when the East was highly locked down and the West was more free-flowing offensively.

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